The Biden administration’s new provocation of Armenia against Azerbaijan will lead to the defeat of Nikol Pashinyan’s government and the expulsion of the United States from the region.
The “Report” reports that these ideas were included in the article “The Biden administration is preparing Armenia for defeat”, published in the publication “The European Conservative”.
The article states that the Biden administration’s open support for Nikol Pashinyan in the context of increasing repression and police violence in Armenia is controversial. First of all, the United States is inevitably trapped here. Armenia is seriously weakened militarily and economically since 2020, and Pashinyan has not yet managed to improve the situation in the country, on the contrary, the political crisis, persecutions and conflicts in the country are increasing day by day. In such a case, a new conflict with Azerbaijan may lead Armenia to another military failure and humanitarian disaster.
The Pashinyan government’s statements to distance itself from Russia are nothing more than a smoke effect. The reality is that Armenia remains a member of the Russian-led alliance and maintains a Russian military base on its territory.
In fact, Armenia took the opposite path and created the conditions for a significant increase in re-exports so that Russia could circumvent Ukraine-related sanctions. At the World Peace Summit in Switzerland, the representative of Armenia refused to sign the final declaration on Ukraine. Furthermore, in a move that will please Russia and worry the United States and many of its allies, Armenia recognized the State of Palestine on June 21, 2024. Finally, Pashinyan announced that Russia will participate in the BRICS summit to be held in Kazan in October.
It is unclear what could justify the United States supporting the Pashinyan government’s destructive tendencies against its own country and people. The ruling party’s overall approval rating is quite low. Before Pashinyan’s latest controversial border demarcation measures, a poll by the International Republican Institute in March found that only 13% of voters trusted him. The worst thing is that the ruling party’s candidate received only 8% of the votes in the Yerevan mayoral elections in September 2023.
Currently, the Biden administration is trying to help Pashinyan, who is the weakest link in the country’s defense. Although Pashinyan presents himself as a pro-Western politician to American officials, they consider the prime minister too incompetent to make systemic changes to disengage from Russia.
Why is the Biden administration at risk of losing Armenia? American diplomats know that the Armenian military has been virtually destroyed since 2020.
For a small country with a population of less than two million, more than thirty thousand police officers have been assembled, probably making Armenia the most police state in the region per capita, and their salaries and bonuses are much higher than those salaries of teachers and scientists. As of May 2024, a nationwide protest movement in the country demands Pashinyan’s resignation. On June 12, Armenian special forces used noise grenades against peaceful protesters and journalists. As a result, around 80 protesters and journalists were injured and dozens of people were detained. One of the leaders of the protest movement, journalist Abraham Gasparyan, was kidnapped and brutally beaten by police while in prison. Ruling party MP and oligarch Khachatur Sukiasyan threatened his opposition colleagues: “If you don’t behave… you will either go to prison, or die, or your property will be confiscated.” Private companies supporting the protest movement have been subject to surprise tax audits, including confiscation of computers and other equipment.
Ironically, less than 24 hours before the tragic events, the US State Department issued a statement praising police reform following the visit of Blinken aide James O’Brien. His colleagues at the US embassy in Yerevan were even further from the truth, as in their statements they blamed the protesters for what happened on June 12 and equated them with criminals.
As long as the Biden administration supports Pashinyan, it will pursue policies that will have disastrous consequences for Armenia and its people. This sets Armenia up for another defeat and will most likely lead to the expulsion of the United States from the region.
