The night may be very long or it may end earlier than expected and we may go to bed relatively early. At two in the morning, the polling stations close Pennsylvania. Until then, the countdown North Carolina The treatment should take half an hour. Although the last two electoral counts have been arduous and slow, the truth is that at this point, if the exit polls are correct, we can already have an idea of who will be the next president of the UNITED STATES.
Both states are essential because of the number of delegates they contribute to the Electoral College (19 in the case of Pennsylvania, 16 in North Carolina) and their demographic importance. If one of the two candidates wins in both states, he will be able to celebrate the presidency.although there are still mathematical options and possible scenarios to sort out for the rest of the morning. The problem for those who don’t want to stay up late is if the two candidates split the two states. This is where too many combinations come in that we will try to reduce to the most relevant.
What Harris needs to reach the White House
The Democratic Party has won the popular vote in every presidential election since 1992, with one exception: George W. Bush’s comfortable victory over John Kerry in 2004. The polls do not agree on what will happen tonight and that is, in principle, bad news for Kamala Harris: Hillary Clinton won in 2016 by more than two points and still lost the Electoral College by 74 delegates. Joe Biden won in 2020 by seven million votes (4.5%) and had to wait for tortuous recounts in Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona and Georgia to complete before he could celebrate his victory.
However, these trends are not expected to repeat in 2024. Harris could narrowly win nationallywhether due to greater acceptance of Trump in states like New York or California that shift millions of voters or greater Republican dominance in rural areas of deep America. He might not even win and it wouldn’t matter if he got a tenth more in the states that really matter. Remember that the American electoral system awards all of a state’s delegates to the winner, without regard to proportions. Maine and Nebraska are the only exceptions, but only two of their delegates are elected by proportional representation.
What does Harris need to win, then? Of course, as we have already said, if at two in the morning Polls show her winning in North Carolina and Pennsylvania.…and if the count later confirms these polls, This will be three quarters of the way traveled. Because? Because these are two states that reflect very different demographics and influence those around them. In other words, if Harris wins in industrial Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin are highly unlikely to losewhere polls give him a very slight advantage.
In the same way, if he wins in multiracial North Carolinawhere Republicans and Democrats have alternated victories in recent calls, always by a margin of less than five points, it is highly likely that this victory can be replicated in other states like Georgia. Anyway, since Trump has won North Carolina every time he’s run, let’s give the former president the win in that state — otherwise, like I said, it would be fatal for the Republicans – what then would Harris need to make up for this loss? ?
Scenario 1: Kamala Harris victory
The white working class vote
Some call it “the rust belt“, others call it “the blue wall” and, in general, it is generally known as the “Midwest”. These are a series of Northeastern states famous for their failing industry and white, working-class majority. For what interests us tonight, let’s focus on the trio Wyoming-Michigan-Pennsylvania. In 2016, Trump won all three by a tiny percentage. In 2020, Biden did the same, also by much smaller margins than his lead across the country.
The most likely victory scenario for Harris is to win all three states again for the Democratic Party. If he succeeds, and all goes well, he will reach the magic number of 270 electoral delegates. You won’t need anything else. That being said, what happens if you miss one of the three? There, more or less improbable combinations come into play. If defeat occurs in Pennsylvaniawe return to the initial dilemma: must win North Carolina…And add Arizona, Nevada or Georgia. If he loses Michigan, he just needs to win North Carolina or the southern combination of Nevada and Arizona. If Wisconsin loses, a win in Arizona or North Carolina would be enough to complete the win.
Harris’ possible path to victory.
In recent weeks there has been speculation that Harris could do better among middle-class whites -especially women who have already punished the Republican Party in the 2022 midterms for its position on abortion- and worse results than Obama or Biden among Latinos and blacks. All this obviously remains to be seen, especially after the very unfortunate comments of comedian Tony Hinchcliffe during the election campaign for asset in New York, where he evaluated Puerto Rico of “Floating trash island.”
The reaction from the Puerto Rican community, a commonwealth within the union, was immediate, with several of its highest representatives, such as musician Nicky Jam, withdrawing their support for the former president. However, if Harris doesn’t get the votes from the Southern states, she will have to rely on everything from the Midwest. Trump, on the other hand, has more options. At least, in principle.
Where polls go wrong
Trump’s victory requires any scenario that is not among those mentioned for a Harris victory. It’s that simple. Basically, as we said, it can be summed up as a win Pennsylvania And North Carolina. If he wins both states, he could afford to lose in Georgia and he would still win if he won in Arizona and Nevada. The reverse also works: if Trump wins the two crown jewels and also takes Georgia, it doesn’t matter what happens in Arizona, Nevada, Michigan or Wisconsin.
Possible victory for Donald Trump.
Now, all this happens, we insist, for Pennsylvania. If Trump doesn’t win therewhere polls predict a better result, it must necessarily win at Michigan or Wisconsin. Would that be enough? Let’s explore his options: A victory in Michigan gives him the White House provided he also wins Georgia and Nevada or Arizona. If this victory happens in Wisconsin, what will happen? distribute only ten delegatesexpected to win the other three states at the same time. Of course, if he wins Michigan and Wisconsin, in addition to North Carolina, which we take for granted, only one debacle would separate him from the presidency: he would have to lose in Arizona, Nevada and Georgia .
There can also be surprises, of course. A recent survey carried out by the prestigious Ann Selzer company gave Harris victory in Iowa, a traditionally Republican state. If Trump loses Iowa, he is very unlikely to win the other majority-white states in the Northeast. Even if he won, if the survey accurately reflects a shift in the white vote toward Harris, he would likely lose elections in other states and by some force. Of course, in the Republican candidacy, they can always call the pollsters’ gross errors against them, precisely in these states in 2016 and 2020. That said, Ann Selzer nailed the results in both calls.
Possible victory for Donald Trump.
Regardless, these are scenarios that will need to be analyzed if things get complicated. To start, just look at North Carolina and Pennsylvania and then we will see. If one of the two candidates wins in both states, sleep peacefully (or not, it’s up to you); If there is division, the fun of recounts and challenges will begin. And then, yes, the night will be very long and will follow the day and so on until there is finally a definitive winner.
