The quantity is deliberately spectacular. Around 60 billion euros: such is the impressive effort that Michel Barnier now plans to make from 2025 to restore public finances. This figure was revealed on Wednesday, October 2, during a press conference organized by Matignon and Bercy. As the new Prime Minister announced the day before during his general policy statement, this adjustment should be divided between savings measures for just over two-thirds and tax increases for the rest. The details of the plan appear in the draft budget transmitted on Tuesday afternoon to the Higher Council of Public Finances and which will be revealed in principle on October 10.
This enormous amount is, in part, a matter of display. In 2024, the public deficit should reach 6.1% of the gross domestic product (GDP), according to new forecasts from the Ministry of Economy. Reducing this deficit to 5% of GDP in 2025, as Michel Barnier has set, requires an adjustment of 1.1% of GDP, or around 30 billion euros. But the government has chosen to use another calculation basis in its communication. Compare the projected deficit with the one expected in 2025 if nothing is done, i.e. around 7% of GDP. Going from this hypothetical 7% to the 5% retained would require about 60,000 million euros.
Presenting such impressive figures allows Michel Barnier to underline the extent of the diversion of the public accounts he inherits and to highlight his own determination. The 40 billion euros of savings planned in one year offer in particular an answer to all those on the right who suspect that the new government is giving in to “ease” tax increases.
No installation, the government responds. Of course, there will be tax increases worth around 20 billion euros. A “fiscal shock” already denounced by some. A surcharge on the profits of groups that exceed 1,000 million euros in turnover could only mean 8,000 million euros. An exceptional contribution will also be requested from individuals. “the luckiest”.
But these temporary efforts remain limited, Matignon maintains: “We are very, very far from asking large groups and the richest people for an effort of the same order of magnitude as that made by the State to help them” in recent years in the face of the Covid-19 crisis and the inflationary crisis. “In general, we will not touch the income tax scale for those who work daily”The Minister of Economy and Finance, Antoine Armand, also declared to RTL on Wednesday.
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