Pedro Sánchez’s phrase caused a sensation. “With a constructive or restrictive legislative power, we will continue to govern for the people, for coexistence and progress.” Immediately, several parliamentary partners began to disfigure the words of the President of the Government during the Federal Committee of the PSOE and issued him a warning: without the Congress, he cannot govern.
What Sánchez has tried with this declaration of intent is to banish the scenario of an electoral advance caused by a senseless legislature. And that is why he wanted to send a strong message at the beginning of this political year about the continuity of his Government. But beyond the words of the president, both in the Moncloa Palace and on Ferraz Street, it is clear that any allusion to taking Parliament until 2027 inevitably implies the approval of at least some general state budgets.
The Executive will work hard on this mission in the coming months despite all the obstacles that stand in the way, which are not few. To begin with, since the return from the summer holidays, the parliamentary majority that Pedro Sánchez invested less than a year ago has been diluted like sugar.
Cases such as those of the PNV, the Canarian Coalition or the vote of José Luis Ábalos, which contributed this week to a certain defeat of the government in Congress, such as that of the PP’s proposal to recognize Edmundo González as the legitimate president of Venezuela, are appreciated on the socialist bench as well as very specific situations that do not imply giving up this support in the future. But the chapter on the Catalan independence movement is very different.
The Government, in fact, already considers lost the vote that, in a few weeks, should support the path of stability of this year, already reversed in July in the first instance by the vote against Junts, which united the force of its seven deputies. to those of PP and Vox to slam the door on a measure that represents the prelude to the public accounts project. Still stuck despite the investiture pact of Salvador Illa between the PSC and the ERC and focused on the party congress in October, the men of Carles Puigdemont have for the moment cut off all avenues of collaboration with Moncloa.
“I think they will answer themselves that, as things stand, they cannot be very optimistic about who knows what vote they can get. “They cannot be surprised because they have been warned,” party secretary general Jordi Turull said on SER on Friday when asked if they were able to support the budget. The answer did not surprise the Socialist Party.
The PSOE already considers, in fact, that the most likely scenario is that of a new budget extension on January 1st. “It is a possibility and, even if it is not the desired scenario, we defend that the budgets in force are progressive and expansive”, they argue within the Executive. But there is a more optimistic hypothesis in the socialist ranks, which is trying to see a light at the end of the tunnel. “It is September, Illa’s investiture took place a month ago and the Congress of the Junts is in October. We are going to give everyone their space and time because perhaps in January the situation is different”, reflects a senior official of the Executive.
Hope is just that. That the months that pass without electoral competitions in sight contribute to calming everyone’s minds, resolving the roadmaps of the Junts and the ERC and rebuilding the house of cards that Pedro Sánchez was able to erect for his investiture. “We absolutely do not rule out the implementation of the Budgets, even if it is after the deadline,” the Government emphasizes.
To give this space mainly to those of Carles Puigdemont, who continue to play a key role in the parliamentary arithmetic even though they are not even able to sit down to negotiate today, Moncloa has already prepared the political list for the coming weeks. During the second half of September, the president will convene the group of regional presidents at the Moncloa Palace to address the ongoing debates on the cancellation of regional debt and on the reform of financing. And the idea is that in the autumn the Ministry of Finance will present to Congress a budget project agreed within the coalition between the PSOE and Sumar and that it will begin its parliamentary process despite the lack of support.
Meanwhile, the contacts between Ferraz and Waterloo remain unchanged. The dialogue between the socialists and the one who holds all the power over the aims of the conservative Catalan independence movement has not been interrupted since the beginning of the legislature. And this is fundamental for Pedro Sánchez, who, even when the circumstances are difficult to understand and there is a breakdown in parliamentary collaboration, as is the case, he has reliable information almost in real time about what Puigdemont is preparing to do. And today, they know very well that it is not possible to agree on almost everything.
“If they respect the current agreements and what is proposed in the Brussels Agreement, they should not suffer,” Turull said in the interview with Cadena SER, in which he warned: “Guessing what Junts will vote for is very simple. . Anything that consolidates coffee for everyone will not have our vote. Anything that increases economic grievances or the invasion of the powers towards Catalonia will not have our vote. But if they do not consciously respect the agreements one after the other, they know that they cannot demand or shift the responsibility to the other party,” he concluded.
The movements that are taking place from the Supreme Court are not helping to calm the atmosphere either. This week, Judge Llarena confirmed that the amnesty does not apply to the embezzlement attributed to Puigdemont. The investigator of the trial before the High Court rejects the appeal of the former Catalan president and maintains that the rule does not apply to this crime attributed to him and to the former ministers Comín and Puig, and for which he is still wanted and captured.
The government hopes that the passage of months should also contribute to giving the Constitutional Court enough time to unravel the application of the amnesty law. Something that would almost definitively authorize the return of Junts to parliamentary collaboration. If only to achieve general state budgets that make more realistic the promise of a lasting legislature until 2027.
