It is the mystery within the mystery. Who, Donald Trump or Kamala Harris, benefits more from early voting for the November 5 presidential election? More than 78 million Americans have already voted, even before Election Day. So the particularity of elections in the United States, a country in permanent campaign, where the voting itself lasts for weeks. Among the states where advance procedures have been used the most: by mail, voting in person, casting the vote in special ballot boxes, etc. – includes Texas, but also three of the seven key states where the final victory will be played: Nevada, North Carolina and Georgia. In this last state, 80% of the electorate has already voted, if we take the 2020 participation as a reference figure.
This election, held four years ago in the midst of the Covid-19 pandemic, was something of a historical anomaly. Of the 158 million voters, two-thirds had voted in advance. In 2012 and 2016, this proportion was 36%. We should return to a more traditional, but still high, level in 2024. “The safest bet is to say that we will have about 50% of the votes, maybe a little more, cast before election day”underlines Tom Bonier, president of the analysis company TargetSmart.
This Democratic strategist has been working with raw, objective data on early voting for many years, while commentators wrongly favor polls. “What catches our attention most in the analysis of this data is a question: which side generates more new voters in early voting? We see that this time the Republicans are converting many voters, who had attended in 2020 on election day, into early voters. This is just a change in voting timing, not an indication of enthusiasm. »
Late for a battle
The Republicans are already happy. This time, Donald Trump did not dissuade his followers from voting early, although four years ago he had denounced these procedures as a vehicle for a totally imaginary Democratic fraud. The mobilization to cover the enormous deficit with respect to the Democrats, observed in 2020, has borne fruit. If we look at states where party affiliation is public to voters, the two parties are almost at the same level. But according to Tom Bonier, Republicans are one battle behind: Democrats have the advantage in terms of new registrants, especially in key states. “If we study the profile of these new registrants starting in July and the entry into the race of Kamala Harris, the overwhelming majority are young people, women, people of color, who traditionally vote much more for Democrats. »
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