The State Duma on Tuesday will consider the main directions of the unified state monetary policy for 2025 and the planning period of 2026 and 2027, which will be presented to deputies by the President of the Bank of Russia Elvira Nabiullina.
The main directions for the next three years present a basic macroeconomic scenario and three alternatives: “disinflationary”, “pro-inflationary” and “risky”. The Central Bank will adjust the set of measures and decisions taken based on the state of the Russian economy, the dynamics of inflation and key indicators of the financial markets. At the same time, in any scenario, monetary policy will aim to ensure price stability and return inflation to 4%.
It is important for the Central Bank to prevent inflation from accelerating, since “people suffer a lot whose income does not grow or grows only slightly,” Nabiullina explained at the end of October at a joint meeting of the relevant committees of the State Duma on the issue. financial market, on the budget and taxes, and on economic policy. Companies, according to her, also suffer from high inflation no less than citizens, because rising costs are one of the manifestations of inflation itself.
High inflation “can only be beneficial for those companies whose goods will be forced to buy despite the increase in prices,” the head of the Central Bank emphasized. This business will maintain a margin, but citizens will pay for it, he noted. Furthermore, with high inflation, economic growth cannot be sustainable, and “high inflation also means unpredictable inflation,” so “it is a dangerous illusion to believe that rising inflation can be reliably maintained within some corridor.” “, believes Nabiullina. Therefore, the Central Bank is not going to “make any discounts to achieve our goal of 4%, which in our opinion is the maximum that can be considered price stability,” he explained.
The relevant committees recommended to the State Duma to take into account the main directions of monetary policy for the period 2025-2027. At the same time, drawing attention to the difference in the macroeconomic forecasts of the Central Bank and the Government of the Russian Federation, they suggested that the Bank of Russia in the future indicate in more detail in the main areas the reasons for these differences. The committees also recommended that the Central Bank include in the document an assessment of the possible impact of budgetary policy decisions on monetary policy decisions. And it is proposed to complement the basic scenario for next year with a forecast of unemployment and labor productivity.
In addition, the Central Bank is proposed to analyze the results of the application of the floating exchange rate regime in Russia, evaluate changes in the volatility and predictability of the exchange rate “in the new reality”, as well as the impact of fluctuations of the ruble exchange rate in inflation dynamics.
“The preparation of such an analysis followed by a broad public debate will undoubtedly contribute to the transparency of the policies pursued by the Bank of Russia and increase confidence in the regulator.” — RIA Novosti cites the committees’ conclusions.
