The Ibex 35 ended a streak of three consecutive weeks of growth this week by recording a depreciation of one 2.58%until reaching the 11,659.2 pointsin a period marked by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the outlook for monetary policy.
The main indicator of the Spanish market has thus moved significantly away from the highs reached last week at the limit of 12,000 integerswhich allowed it to reach new levels since 2010.
For market analyst Manuel Pinto, this week had a “clear” geopolitical role: “The escalation of tensions in the Middle East is keeping investors on alert, awaiting a possible response from Israel to the latest attacks received by part of Iran,” he underlined.
In this sense, Pinto focused on the characteristics of the area and a possible blockade of the Strait of Hormuzthrough which up to 40% of global oil trade passes, have caused sharp increases in the price of a barrel, which is heading towards its largest weekly increase since the start of 2023.
More precisely, the barrel of crude oil BrentThe barrel of oil, a benchmark on the Old Continent, increased by 9% at the weekly close, to $78.5, while Texas WTI increased by 9.5%, to $74.6 per barrel.
As a warning, this analyst focused on the fact that in the area of commodities, geopolitical conflicts, stimuli from China, the possible overheating of the American economy and rate cuts around the world , invite a new wave of inflation in the months to come.
On the other hand, the Ibex 35 was penalized in return by the correction of bank values, which has a great influence on the calculation of the index.
Pinto explained in this regard that the financial sector is suffering the consequences of global instability and that the economic data published in recent days in Europe have not helped either.
On this last point, he indicated that the fall in inflation in the euro zone for the first time since 2021 below the target set by the European Central Bank (ECB) – at 1.8% in September – anticipates a more aggressive rate reduction program than expected in the region.
In the macroeconomic domain, it appears above all on the other side of the Atlantic that the American economy has generated 254,000 new jobs non-agricultural workers during the month of September, a figure higher than the 159,000 created in August, while the unemployment rate fell by a tenth, to 4.1%.
“This data certainly indicates a drop of 25 basis points instead of the 50 basis points that seemed to have been discounted so far in November,” Pinto pointed out.
Following possible monetary policy implications, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey suggested the central bank could be more active in cutting rates.
On the other side of the globe and with opposing sentiment, Pinto highlighted the advances in China’s stock markets: “The historic monetary and fiscal stimulus measures of recent years have caused the region’s selective stocks to rise by more than 30 % since the lows reached in September,” he said.
Ibex 35 companies
The biggest increases of the Ibex 35 were:
- Repsol: +4.68%
- Solarie: +4.29%
- Indra: +2.26%
While the biggest declines in the Ibex 35 were:
- IAG: -9.79%
- Single box: -6.61%
- Rail: -5.87%
International markets
The main European stock exchanges are positioned as follows:
- Paris: -3.21%
- London: -0.48%
- Frankfurt: -1.81%
- Milan: -3.26%
At the European level, it is worth highlighting the crisis in the automotive sector following the publication of the Italian company Stellantis a lower than expected revenue estimate. Related to this, Brussels is moving ahead with tariffs on Chinese cars after reluctant countries, such as Germany, which fears the consequences of a trade war with Beijing, failed to do so. ‘Stop.
On the foreign exchange market, the euro depreciated by 1.8% over the week against the dollar, to 1.0958. green bills: “The dollar served as a refuge for investors,” Pinto underlined.
The interest rate on the ten-year Spanish bond closed at 2.961% after gaining four points during the week, while the risk premium over the German bond remained at 75.3 points.
The ounce of Golden Troy It depreciated by 0.3% over the week, to $2,650 – it remains close to its highs – while Bitcoin fell 6% cheaper and is struggling not to lose the $60,000 level.
