The recovery of tourism after Covid-19 has been more difficult than expected. But it seems that, more than four years later, the companies in the Ibex 35 sector have returned to what they were. One of the aspects that remained to be addressed was the distribution of the dividend and this year 2024 was the definitive recovery of shareholder remuneration. By 2025, the average dividend yield of Aena, IAG and Amadeus will approach 4% for the first time since 2019.
In 2019, the average performance of these three companies was 3.8%, exactly the same profitability that these companies achieve from the profits they generate in 2025. Among them, Aena is at the top with a remuneration that exceeds 5% profitability and also reached with stocks close to historic highs.
The company that manages airports like Barajas or El Prat, among others, achieved a net profit of 1,630 million euros during the year 2023, the highest profit figure in its entire history. This advantage also allowed it to distribute a historic dividend of 7.66 euros per share, which will rise to 10.54 euros, according to estimates, on the profits it will ultimately generate in 2024.
By 2025, experts expect this figure to be the highest in its history again and to reach 11.23 euros for each security in the portfolio. Regarding current prices, This remuneration offers its investors a return of 5.3%.
Additionally, the airport company is achieving this performance with its payout even though its stock is hovering around historic highs. After experiencing 2023, its best stock market year since its beginnings, Aena continued this year to conquer investors and recorded increases of more than 20%, after having established new highs in its entire history in October at 208 euros per share. action. . Analysts, however, do not believe that his rise is over and they see their titles above 220 euros in the following months, which still leaves its price with a potential increase of 10%.
It is worth noting that, among all, Aena has the most attractive dividend policy, pledging to distribute 80% of its profits among its shareholders as dividend until 2026, as the company states in its Strategic plan. Compared to him, Amadeus is the second which distributes the most, 50%. The estimates only indicate payment (percentage of profits that goes to the dividend) of 8% for IAG.
This way, Aena would distribute 1,694 million euros in dividends in 2025a year for which analysts’ forecasts expect profits close to 2,120 million euros, a figure never reached by the company. “Since its privatization, Aena has enjoyed very strong traffic, recovering from the global financial crisis that hit Spain and its local airlines so hard.. The substantial increase in the market share of low-cost airlines to, from and within Spain has generated strong growth, with a thriving Spanish tourism market,” explains Barclays, to understand the growth of the company at the operational level.
The airport company was the first of the Ibex tourism companies to recover the remuneration of its shareholders, suspended due to the outbreak of the pandemic. But, as profits recovered, the rest of the companies quickly joined the movement.
After five years of drought in terms of remuneration, IAG will go from the distribution of 0.03 euros per share charged in 2024 to 0.12 euros per share in 2025. Regarding current prices, This dividend provides a return to airline shareholders of 3.6%.
The company that owns Iberia was the last to announce its return to the dividend, since it did not want to guarantee anything to its investors until they could maintain this remuneration over time. Thus, maintaining the current remuneration as a floor, analysts expect the amount for 2026 to be 0.13 euros and 0.15 euros for 2027, sThe yields on these payments are 4.2% and 5.1%, respectively.
This same week, and for the first time since March 2020 (in the midst of a fall due to Covid-19), IAG soared above 3 euros per share. And its journey is not yet over since it still has a 12% path to go in the coming months to reach the 3.37 euros per share that experts set as the average price target. The Spanish-British company has gained more than 69% on the stock market since January, when it the most bullish year in its history on the stock market. It is also the second fastest growing airline in the entire global airline industry (after United Airlines, which is doubling its stock market value in 2024).
To the dividend we must also addto the share buyback that it announced in November for a value of 350 million eurosthe first since 2018.”In our opinion, we see potential for IAG to return 4 billion in 3 years, or around 30% of its market capitalization. This is if we maintain a net debt/ebitda ratio constant, and with an increase in investments between 2025 and 2027. The amount may be lower whether you choose to slow down further or save money for inorganic opportunities,” says JP Morgan.
Its recommendation also serves as one of its strong credentials as an investment idea. Currently, no analyst who follows its stocks recommends selling them and gets its best buy recommendation since its virus-driven collapse. This is the sixth best tip The Ibex League (the combination that makes elEconomista.es with the average of the recommendations of Bloomberg and FactSet).
This year, Amadeus’ remuneration was 1.32 euros per share (divided into two payments during the year, an interim payment of 0.44 euros and another additional payment of 0.88 euros). By 2025, experts predict that the company’s total dividend will amount to 1.66 euros, which represents a profitability of 2.4%. This yield will continue to increase until reaching 3% in 2027.
“Profits and cash returns for Amadeus shareholders could increase through 2026, although at a slower pace, as the company invests in the development of new projects, facing competition and all these costs will weigh on margins,” they say. Bloomberg Intelligence.
Currently, Amadeus revalues slightly in 2024 and falls below 66 euros per share. However, over the next few months, analysts expect the company to definitively return to pre-pandemic levels, almost five years later. They estimate the price of its shares at 74.28 euros, which would exceed the 73.32 euros at which the company was listed before the stock market. covid crash. Even them, it an upside potential of 13% and experts recommend maintaining their positions.
