Last October 12 is a celebration date for the Spanish and Latin American calendars, although it gets a different name depending on which country you ask. In Spain it is commemorated as Hispanic Heritage Day, while in many Latin American countries the discovery of the continent or the meeting of the two worlds is celebrated. For investors and market analysts, the connotation goes back not to 1492 but to two years ago, since in This same date in 2022 is when many stock indices reached the latest lows not seen since Covid in a scenario of uncontrolled inflation a few months after the start of the war in Ukraine. Since then, the S&P 500 has managed to come back, marking an increase of more than 60% on the stock market, an ascent that the Ibex 35 manages to reproduce, a difficult feat to achieve and which other European indicators do not reach.
The main benchmark for global stocks, the S&P 500, is not easy to follow, let alone meet or exceed. Data doesn’t lie. This year it is very difficult to beat him. Last week, the S&P marked the biggest gap of the year with the selective European benchmark indexthe Stoxx 600, increasing its price by more than 20% in 2024, while the European index does not exceed an increase of 8% in one year. And if we compare the price of the two indices since the beginning of the millennium, the path of revaluation of the selective par excellence of the United States is unbeatable: it exceeds an increase of 295%, compared to the 37% reached by the Stoxx in this area. century.
Hence the importance of this success achieved by the Spanish stock market, since the minimum levels set in October 2022, when the consequences of the war in Ukraine worsened. The Ibex recorded an increase of 60.6%, going from the 7,621 points at which it fell on that date to around 11,650 points at which it is currently trading, compared to the 61.6% which marks the American benchmark of the 500 plus large companies in the United States. States, which fell to 3,577 points and is now trading in its historical highs: 5,780 points. Last week the Ibex managed to overcome the rise of the S&P 500 during this period, but the last rally Bullish trend on Wall Street led to US index take the lead.
The timing of the fall was crucial for the markets facing a new escalation of tension by the Russian attack on Ukrainian energy infrastructure, highlighted by what is commonly called the fear thermometer, the VIX index. Additionally, concerns were added regarding the rise of inflation this kept reverberating in the news, which also dampened the mood of investors, who chose to stop buying due to concerns about the future of the global economy with a new source of conflict at the gates of Europe.
The recession has become most likely scenario for the world economies, but especially for Europe and the United States, which at the same time saw the inflationary path accelerate at full speed without the brakes expected by the markets. That is why in that year the main monetary entities, both the European Central Bank and the US Federal Reserve, began a new path in their monetary policy, adopting a stance warmonger by gradually increasing interest rates, the objective and rule of which is to measure the effectiveness of these changes It was about the improvement in macroeconomic data but especially inflation. Until then, the two central banks had been fighting for other reasons, with the aim of keeping their respective economies active after the shutdown experienced during the pandemic and the period that followed, during which it was necessary to drain money from the economy to boost consumption.
And although the Ibex imitates the path traveled by the S&P 500, there is one of its European counterparts that manages to surpass it, which is the case of the Milan Stock Exchange. The Italian FTSE Mib a 65% increase has been recorded over the last two years. The German Dax is also approaching, but can’t overcome a 57% increase. While the EuroStoxx 50 achieved a revaluation of 49% over this period. But the Paris index is the one that has progressed the least: it does not even reach half the distance that the Ibex does. The Cac 40 only manages to score one 29% increase over the last two yearspunished by the complicated year that 2024 has meant for the French stock market, which still maintains its course in negative terms with sectors like luxury that have been hit hard.
The bank pushes the ibex
What has been a fundamental difference for the Spanish stock market is the high character banked . The banking sector represents almost 30% of the total weight of the Ibex 35. Banking entities had suffered from the zero rate context installed by the European Central Bank due to the pandemic. But in its mission to control inflation, the ECB has given a big boost to its activities with the rapid rise in rates. The banks have understood this push what they needed shine again on the floor. And even though the price of silver has started to fall this year, experts point out that they still have the ability to improve their results and that investors continue to reward them on the trading floor.
Our country’s financial institutions have broken records constantly in your business resultsmarking the maximum profits in its entire history. Experts’ outlook for the end of this year remains very positive, even though the process of lowering rates has begun. It is precisely because of these spectacular increases in profits that three of the ten companies that increased their share prices the most during this period, and the Banco Sabadell crowns this list. The company, pending BBVA’s takeover offer, has increased by 162% since October 12, 2022, which allows it hang he gold within all companies listed on the Ibex during this period. BBVA closes top 5 of the best Spanish companies of the last two years, by obtaining a revaluation of 101%. Banco Santander is positioned not far from its counterparts in this ranking. The banking entity occupies eighth place and reached over this period an increase of around 88%.
And the outlook for banks remains good for the market, although the ECB could even accelerate budget cuts. The consensus of analysts gathered by FactSet has improved the profit estimates of Spanish banks by 20%, they increase by almost 20% compared to what was forecast at the start of the year, so the year does not seem to be over. celebrity for these companies.
Among the companies that stood out the most during this period, Inditex comes in second position in this table. The group founded by Amancio Ortega grew by 140% over this period. Analysts expect it to continue to improve its results, the market expects it to reach a historic margin of 20% in 2026. put he bronzeone of the few tech companies in the Ibex, Indra, experienced a 120% revaluation. On the negative side of the picture, it should be noted that in the last two years only five companies out of the 35 in the Ibex have suffered losses, these are precisely those linked to energy, such as Acciona Energía and Solaria. , which fell by 46% and 21% respectively.
