He International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised this Tuesday five tenths of growth prospects of Spain in 2024, up to 2.9%, a figure that stands out in a depressed euro zone which will only grow by 0.8% this year.
“During the first half of the year, what we saw was that the exports were very strong and this is partly due to tourism (…) but also to private consumption and public investments which have been strong,” explained the deputy director of the IMF studies department, Petya Koeva Brooks, in an interview with EFE.
According to Koeva Brooksthis good data is also driven by the public investment and “the impact of certain European Union (EU) funds, which are being absorbed.”
The data is above the Forecasts from the Bank of Spainwho believes that the Gross domestic product (GDP) will increase by 2.8%, and own governmentwhich estimates that growth will be 2.7%.
As part of the annual meetings held this week by the IMF and the World Bank, the institution presented its latest global economic updates (the WEO report, in English) and forecasts remained unchanged growth for Spain by 2025, at 2.1%.
The IMF also left its growth forecasts unchanged. the global economy at 3.2% for this yearwhile reducing those for 2025 by a tenth, also to 3.2%, in a period of great global instability where the risks of downward reductions in estimates are increasing.
The Washington-based institution has already downgraded its rating poor growth in the euro zone down to 0.8% this year (one tenth less than estimated in July) and 1.2% thereafter (three tenths less). These figures represent a worsening compared to your own calculationsbut growth compared to 0.4% in 2023, driven by stronger domestic demand.
Germany stands out (but not for the better) for its dependence on manufacturing
Germany It is undoubtedly the country that stands out the most among the major European economies, but not for the better. The IMF reduced its forecast by two tenths to 0 growth. And it lowered by 5 tenths those for next year, when the country will grow by 0.8%.
According to Koeva Brooks, economies that rely more on manufacturing than services, were more affected and Germany is one of these countries. “We hope that this will change, that the economy will recover in 2025 thanks to higher real wages, as well as consumer and investment confidence,” he detailed.
As for the rest of the eurozone’s largest economies, France will experience growth of 1.1% both this year (after an improvement of two tenths) and next year (two tenths less); And Italy will only grow 0.7% in 2024 and the 0.8% in 2025 (after a worsening of one tenth).
Inside United Kingdom, For its part, it is expected that growth will be 1.1% in 2024 (four tenths more) and 1.5% in 2025, with falling inflation and interest rates stimulating domestic demand.
These forecasts are given in a context where interest rates have already started to fall. According to the IMF, the European Central Bank (ECB) will do reductions of 100 basis points in 2024 and 50 points in 2025, with which the interest rate will settle at 2.5% in June 2025. Concerning debt, in the euro zone, the debt/GDP ratio is expected to have already stabilized around 88% in 2024, although with differences between countries.
