The passage of DANA through several autonomous communities, notably Valencia, left significant human and material losses. In the economic field, The natural disaster will immediately harm Spanish GDP. And its negative consequences will persist over time.
Firstly because the economic capacity of the province of Valencia, the most affected, is paralyzed and will not fully recover in a short time. term still undefined.
The affected geographical area “represents no less than 5% of the national GDP, which is very relevant,” explains María Jesús Fernández, senior economist at Funcas. “The paralysis of a large part of the activity for a certain time can have consequences visible impact on national GDP growth figures for the fourth quarteryou can subtract a few tenths.”
Europe Press
On the other hand, the “impact” of DANA on the Valencian economy “is going to be lasting. There has been a very significant destruction of the productive fabric and infrastructure“.
Furthermore, even if “many companies will be able to return to work in a short time, others will close (small businesses, small businesses in populated areas or industrial companies that already had financial problems) and others will return to work but will take time to do so normally.because equipment and machinery will need to be replaced.”
Then there is the problem of communications, already mentioned. “Infrastructure will take time to function normally” and there will be roads that will take weeks or months to repair. The Ministry of Transport and the Generalitat Valenciana, in a preliminary assessment, estimate the damage at 2.6 billion euros.
Fernández adds that the effect of DANA can last longer in agriculture than in the rest of the sectors. “This season’s crops will be gone and the fields of fruit trees will no longer produce for several years because new ones will have to be planted. With all the activities that this implies”, such as packaging, transport, logistics and even certain derived food industries.
Furthermore, “probably, tourism is also affected for some time.”
In general, and beyond the evaluations of María Jesús Fernández, the economic impact of DANA continues to be surrounded by unknowns, especially since its effects are still very recent in Spanish geography, especially in Catalonia.
It is for this reason that several voices consulted in the economic field consider that It’s too early to put numbers on the table.
To inquiries from EL ESPAÑOL-Invertia, Salvador Navarrovice-president of the CEOE and president of the Business Confederation of the Valencian Community (CEV) indicates that at present, The damage is “incalculable” and that the Valencian infrastructure “is very damaged”.
Mirenchu del Valle, president of the Unespa insurance association, shares that the scale of DANA “cannot yet be calculated.” However, in statements on Monday, he admitted that he wanted to be the “largest accident due to a climatic event” in Spain.
Among the rare known figures, there are those provided by Valencian institutions. Among them is the province’s Chamber of Commerce, which estimates that the crisis, if any, has affected some 65 municipalities, which have 845,371 inhabitants. This translates to 54,289 companies and 354,000 workers affected..
In this context, the Insurance Compensation Consortium has already received more than 46,000 claims from those affected and it is expected that the first compensation will begin to be paid at the end of this week.
“The situation requires numerous public investments in infrastructurebut, like what happened with the pandemic, it could be opportune to help the affected companies so that they can restore their activity”, adds the senior economist of Funcas. “And of course the ERTE, which is already well oiled. “I believe this is a pandemic-like situation.”
Indeed, this Tuesday, the Council of Ministers approves a set of measures which serve as social shield for the affected population. We will see if this, added to the aid requested by the Generalitat, serves to mitigate the impact of an unprecedented DANA.
