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The Kursk offensive is a risky gamble for kyiv

For Ukraine, it would be a matter of reaching a position of strength in the peace negotiations. On Tuesday, September 3, a little less than a month after the launch of the unprecedented Ukrainian offensive on Russian soil, Volodymyr Zelensky said that this operation represents a “end of war stage” unleashed against his country two and a half years earlier.

In an interview with the American television channel NBC News, the Ukrainian president also clarified that the attack in the Kursk region was related to a second peace summit to which Russian representatives were invited to participate, although the date and place have not yet been announced. In this regard, Volodymyr Zelensky also agreed that the Ukrainian armed forces should ” keep “ control of the hundreds of towns covering more than 1,300 square kilometres in Russian territory that they claim have been confiscated: “For now we need it”declared.

In Ukraine, the operation boosted the morale of the country’s civilians and soldiers while the Kiev army had been on the defensive for over a year, following the failure of its counter-offensive in the summer of 2023. It also temporarily altered the narrative surrounding the war and sent signals to kyiv’s allies, who supported the offensive despite the use of Western weapons on Russian soil.

Read also | Article reserved for our subscribers. War in Ukraine: Pro-Ukrainian Russian rebels stay out of Kursk offensive

However, he did not achieve what the kyiv authorities had hoped for by breaking one of the famous “red lines” when crossing the Russian border: authorization to use long-range missiles deep inside enemy territory. The American ally still refuses to give its approval for fear of an escalation of the war.

Prisoners, a welcome bargaining chip

However, the offensive on Kursk allowed “replenish” TO “change fund” of prisoners of war with the capture of some 600 Russian soldiers. These men, most of them recruits surprised by the Ukrainian offensive, represent a welcome bargaining chip for kyiv, while thousands of its soldiers remain detained in Russia. A first exchange took place on 24 August, involving 230 soldiers from both camps.

Read also | Article reserved for our subscribers. Russia: One month after the biggest exchange between Moscow and the West, “postcards” to remember the hundreds of political prisoners

One month after the start of this operation, the country faces the challenge of transforming its military victories into political gains. An extremely risky gamble, as the Kiev army suffers from a cruel lack of men and ammunition. If the offensive has indeed allowed Ukraine to achieve some successes in the short term, maintaining control of Russian territories entails many dangers. Especially since one of the main objectives of the operation – to relieve Russian pressure on the Donbass front by forcing Moscow to redeploy its men to defend Kursk – has so far not borne fruit.

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Anthony Robbins
Anthony Robbins
Anthony Robbins is a tech-savvy blogger and digital influencer known for breaking down complex technology trends and innovations into accessible insights.
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