Late Thursday afternoon, the approval of the extension of the bank tax was announced, which will be valid for three years (until 2028) but which will undergo some modifications in its structure, to make it more progressive than that of this year, set at 4.8. % on profits net of interest and commissions.
Thus, the new structure, made up of several sections which progressively tax the profits of this sector, from 0% for the first 100 million to 7% for everything exceeding 5.1 billion, has a direct consequence on the impact that would suffer each individual. one of the entities in its services. According to Barclays experts, the bank most penalized by this change is CaixaBank, with a 2% drop in its earnings per share estimated for 2025.
This was also reflected in the stock market, where its shares fell more than 5% in just two sessions. For Santander And BBVA The impact will be less since they carry out a large part of their activity outside the national territory and, consequently, the shortfall will only be 0.3% and 0.2%respectively. The market also reflected this situation in the Cantabrian bank, which lost more than 2% in these two days compared to the 0.3% that BBVA increased, conditioned in its case by the public purchase offer opened on Sabadell.
On the opposite side, The greater progressivity of the sections of this tax favors small bankswho will see their bill reduced. This is especially the case for Uniquewho will pay 5.9% less of what would go into the treasury with this year’s model. This value increases slightly during these two sessions compared to the 1.8% given by the Spanish sector. Bankinter and Sabadell They can also celebrate this change when they experience the impacts of 4.2% and 1.8%respectively, in their EPS, as calculated by Barclays. However, these two stocks have fallen on the stock market since the announcement, although less than the sector as a whole.
The new legislation also provides for a small corporate tax deduction, equivalent to 25% of what was paid under this new tax, which could reduce the total impact on the big banks. “This tax was expected and we believe that it should not worry the market, even if maintaining a tax that is not easily linked to extraordinary profits can generate uncertainty among shareholders, contributing to a certain degree of stigmatization towards shareholders. Spanish banks, particularly national ones”, they point out at Deutsche Bank.
“Obviously, the final impact should not be too damaging compared to the previous three years, even for the one most affected, namely CaixaBank,” continues the German entity. “On the other hand, banks that had been taxed disproportionately this year, are now treated more fairly, like Unicaja, so, although the continuation of the tax is never good news, at least that does not make what exists worse,” they conclude.
Double-digit potential
Beyond this particular situation, the sector continues to benefit from high interest rates compared to the last decade. However, the expectation that the ECB will accelerate the fall in the price of silver in the coming months has weighed on the price of Spanish banks, which have already at 9% the maximum of the yearcarried out in April.
However, analysts still see strong revaluation potential among these companies. In fact, the six banks listed on the Ibex have double-digit runs up to their respective average target prices. The one that stands out the most is that of Santander, which today received a new buying advice from Morgan Stanley, which took it out of its “hold”. The consensus average pegs its valuation at 29% above its current price.
It is followed by BBVA, with a 22% be penalized by the public purchase offer. Also, above the 20% are those of CaixaBank and Sabadell while analysts expect the lowest increases at Unicaja (15%) and Bankinter (almost one 13%). In this context, analysts recommend buying Sabadell, Caixa and Santander and keeping the shares in the portfolio if they come from BBVA, Unicaja or Bankinter.
