There is no doubt that the results of elections held in the USA Last week was a big surprise for many European analysts and journalists due to the clear defeat of the Democratic candidacy during a campaign where it once again took the upper hand, the economy, stupid which gave victory in 1992 to Clinton about Bush.
With high inflation causing losses purchasing power to the middle and working classes, expensive housing and great inequalities, asset obtained 892,575 more votes than 4 years ago and Harris 9,462,295 fewer votes than Biden in a campaign focused on identity and race.
The reality is that the difference between Democratic and Republican voters varied by more than 10 million votes in 4 years, during elections where more than 147 million citizens exercised the right to vote. A very polarized election, marked by Republican promises to fight effectively and quickly against complex and costly mass expulsions of illegal immigrants, to implement a battery of trade measures which involve a sharp increase in customs duties on Chinese companies for protect yourself. jobs of the Americans, reduce defense spending to support the Europeans and regain the pride of being Americans.
One of the news of election night is the election of the future vice president of the United States of America. James David Vance. Media lawyer, businessman, financier, writer and senator since 2023, born in Ohio for 40 years, who has been doing it with Nixon and Breckinridge, one of the youngest vice presidents. The childhood of this father of three children was marked by poverty, son of a drug addict mother, divorced twice, raised by his maternal grandparents from whom he adopted the surname Vance.
Former Corporal Corporal Marinesparticipated in the Iraq War in 2005 as a military journalist. After this experience, he studied at the University Ohio State, where he earned his degree in political science and philosophy in 2009 to study on a nearly full scholarship at the Ohio State Law School. Yalea postgraduate degree and eventually pursued a doctorate in law in 2013.
He worked on the team of Republican Senator Cornyn, also a legal assistant to Judge Bunning, from where he joined a law firm, ending up at San Francisco as a venture capital specialist between 2016 and 2017.
America’s future
Now that we have experienced some brief glimpses into his life, let’s discuss some thoughts on his thoughts. To understand his way of thinking and the values that will undoubtedly mark the new political and social revolution to come, we must stop at the work that JD Vance published in 2016. It is more than a simple memoir, since it also contains the concerns and facts that shaped the thinking of future vice president of the most powerful nation on the planet. It was one of the best-selling books in 2016 and 2017 and was also successfully brought to screens in 2020 via Netflix.
Under the title Peasant Elegy, it looks back on the life of a family in crisis in what is called the rust belt, the large region which has experienced the decline of its powerful industry since 1980, experiencing a great loss of population , economic and urban decay. In 1997, I participated, invited by the embassy of the United States, as an observer of the elections that gave Clinton his second majority and participated in several rallies in the Columbus in Ohio, which, even back then, we said was like hundreds of other towns, in the middle of nowhere. Messages on the necessary reindustrialization and reduction of immigration were already a centerpiece of the Republicans. Now, three decades later, other promises have also been added that affect us as Europeans. The first is the defense and in parallel the struggle to finish freeing the Ukrainian of the Russian illegal occupation.
In February 2024, Senator JD Vance published an op-ed in Financial Times where he spoke, according to him, of the excessive military protection that the United States had granted to the prosperous countries of Europe since the end of the Cold war after the fall of the wall Berlin whose 35th anniversary we are celebrating this week.
The question posed in the column was: are European countries ready to defend themselves or their allies? He underlined the sharp reduction in European defense budgets since the 1990s, of the order of 8,600 billion dollars, relying essentially on the generous American friend, whose annual defense budget, a trillion dollarsrepresents a great effort for the American taxpayer.
Additionally, he drew attention to the danger of having a fragmented defense industry, both in the United States and Europe. Europeunable to have the necessary quantities of heavy weaponry more advanced compared to the Russian arms industry, for example in the production of projectiles where the Russians already produce twice as many units. He also mentioned the low availability of rapid intervention army corps to deploy a brigade in a war zone, giving the example of the low deployment capacity of the armed forces. german armydespite its significant military spending.
Ending with the statement that Germanywhich will have elections again next February, is the most important economy in Europe, but it depends on the energy and security of third parties, which undoubtedly makes it very vulnerable from the point of view of security. geoeconomics. According to the op-ed, it seems highly likely that, in the military conflict with Russia, Ukraine will lose one of its main supporters in the supply of weapons and aid from February.
On globalization, international trade and protracted trade conflicts, at a conference on the crisis of civilizations in the world Institute for Intercollegiate Studies (ISI) in 2021, Vance gave some interesting guidelines on the current American dream. According to him, it did not consist of having academic degrees from prestigious universities, nor of writing bestsellershaving wealth and power, if not being able to live a good life in your own country.
A simple definition that everyone can understand, the goal is to be a good husband and father who can live our dreams, have real opportunities for advancement to start a business or give to our descendants what we did not have.
For this, Vance said, it is essential to have wages reasonable and sufficient for working class and the middle class, which is not possible with a policy of immigration this allows the reduction of these salaries.
He emphatically emphasized that he does not want China to build its new middle class on the backs of America’s working and middle classes, who are losing more job opportunities every day due to poor industrial policy. and manufacturer of the United States. because industrial and manufacturing companies are disappearing. The policy of high customs tariffs with China is served, but it will also affect Europeans, undoubtedly especially the imports from Germany, Italy and Ireland. The promised 10% across-the-board tariffs will hit European growth, taking 1.5% off our economy. GDPmore than 260,000 million euros. In this scenario, it is predictable that the ECB will reduce rates in a more aggressive manner.
Finally, end with a reference from JD Vance to national and patriotic pride for all that the United States has done in its recent history in the world to build a better future. Fundamental piece on which the Republicans fight against the cultural war of cancellation, bonism and wokism of the last four years which has caused a disintegration of society.
Faced with this, we will once again witness the resurgence of American acts such as the landing on the beaches of Normandy fighting the Nazis, the first foot on the moon, the defeat of Soviet Union and the fall of the Berlin Wall.
A new American revolution, a 180 degree turn, from Harris to Vance, economically and socially, is already underway and Vice President Vance will be a visible and active standard bearer of this great change that many believe could be harmful to the economy. economic interests traditional European ones, although this will undoubtedly open up many opportunities for those who adapt to this new geo-economic environment.
Europe magis sui iuris that the debt
Jose Luis Morenoeconomist was director of Economy in the Community of Madrid and at Madrid City Hall. Economic and commercial analyst.
