Last August, there were an average of 849,279 members with a permanent discontinuous contract, a figure that represents a decrease of 14,471 employees, 1.65% compared to the same month of the previous year. With this adds two consecutive months of decline over a year, something that is happening for the first time since the labor reform. The Government has been quick to point out this trend to end the controversy surrounding these jobs, but its ruling clearly shows that the plaintiffs with an employment relationship, a category in which the SEPE classifies permanent discontinuous employees as “inactive”, added to that same period 92,891 soldiers, 13%, and reaching a new record of 782,336.
At the press conference presenting the unemployment and affiliation data, the Secretary of State for Social Security, Borja Suárez, celebrated the “stabilization” of these affiliates, whose figure represents 5% of the total number of employees and 6.6% of those who have a permanent contract.With this we should adopt or close the whole debate. around discontinuous fixed assets,” he said.
The “debate” that Elma Saiz’s number two was referring to is twofold. On the one hand, it refers to the volatility of this particular type of permanent contracts, which, according to the Social Security statistics itself. multiplied after the reformThus, although they represent 5.1% of average employees (compared to 2% before the new legislation), their transition to inactivity causes 19.7% of disaffiliations, a percentage only exceeded by the termination of a temporary contract. Before the legal change, this percentage was barely 2%.
That is to say yesIts labor turnover has increased exponentially relative to its employment weight. Although the emphasis is generally more on member data published as balances on the last day of the month or as a monthly average, which makes the daily volatility of employment go unnoticedparticularly with regard to its distribution by type of contract.
The transition to inactivity is the cause of the second pillar of the controversy. This is a situation in which the work does not end, but is “suspended”, even though the employee does not receive a salary or membership fees until he is recalled. During this period, you can register as a job seeker and apply for unemployment benefits (if you have paid enough contributions). What happens is that he is not considered a registered unemployed person, but rather a “complainant with an employment relationship”, since the contract has not been terminated.
Its increase since the labor reform explains the controversy over an alleged composition of the unemployment figures. In the last year, registered unemployed people decreased by 130,579 people, while this category of job seekers increased by 92,891. However, in 2023 there were several months in which the number of applicants increased more than unemployment decreased.
The Government puts the impact of these figures into perspective by recalling that Not all complainants with an employment relationship are permanent, discontinuous, inactivebut the Ministry of Labour refuses to honour its own commitment to purify the figures. There is little doubt that the entire increase in this category since the entry into force of the labour reform comes from these people, since other causes, like some cases of people affected by ERTEs, it no longer has any relevant statistical weight to explain the distortion of the figures, as happened during the pandemic.
In any case, there has been a moderation in the trend over the past year, which can be attributed to the fact that the membership of discontinuous permanent members has been reduced. But then why are complainants with an employment relationship they did not slow down with the same intensity?
One possible explanation is that there are more permanent employees who have ceased their activities and who, once they became inactive, have contributed enough to receive unemployment benefits, which has led them to register as claimants. However, the average number of monthly unemployment benefit recipients not only did not increase, but actually decreased slightly last year, from 118,210 to 115,773 according to the latest SEPE data (although this figure is double that recorded in 2019).
It should be taken into account that performance data This is a monthly average over the whole year.which fluctuates enormously from one month to the next since it is a group marked by a high volume of inactivity but also calls, marked by the seasonal nature of the economy. This generates short-term benefits, but those benefits are also interrupted much more frequently due to the worker returning to work.
This raises the question: how many discontinuous encounters continue to appear in the archives despite having been called by your company? In this case, they interrupt the recovery of the allowance, but their right is not automatically interrupted as is the case for an unemployed person (for whom requires full availability It should be taken into account that this request is renewed every three months, which can lead to many permanent discontinuous employees remaining registered with the public employment services while they are active. which saves them the procedure if they resume the activity.
This would not constitute a concealment of unemployment, but it complicates the statistical monitoring of the data. In any case, the fact that the government does not publish data (which in theory it should be able to do perfectly well through the SEPE) that could refute the criticisms implies that either it is not interested in making them known, or it does not have the capacity to break it down.
In the meantime, the controversy is far from over and, in fact, it is easy to predict what will happen in the coming months. It is expected that, as is the case in 2022 and 2023, the number of claimants with an employment relationship will decline in September and October, rise again from November to February, and then decline until it begins to rebound in July.The evolution of the number of members will go in the opposite direction.
However, if the increase in the number of affiliates continues to moderate, it is not excluded that at some point the number of applicants with an employment relationship get over it.
That being said, discontinuous fixed-term contracts will continue to be talked about. Expect it to “close” because the evolution of its members is closed, while the problem of both the quality of its jobs and the dispersion of employment statistics.
