The effects of DANA also disrupt and overwhelm politics and institutions, and bring the legislature into a new situation. Now the government and parties are forced to review their strategies and change the meaning of General state budgets and its negotiation.
Now they will be the “Reconstruction budgets” or “the budgets to face the catastrophe”. These will no longer be the budgets to keep Pedro Sánchez in Moncloa.
To a large extent, this is called Rally around the flag or the effect of concentration around the flag, which according to political science consists of the support that governments generate in times of war or intense crises. Depending on the evolution of management, there will be support or rejection from the authorities. This is Sánchez’s political challenge.
He is affected efficiency of the state structurein the middle of the debate on federal Spain. In less than a month a PSOE congress is planned with this federal and centrifugal horizon on the table and shortly after a Conference of Presidents in which the discussion on the shortcomings that the State has demonstrated in this crisis and its impact on a financing system that must help the Valencian Community and not unprotect and weaken the State must necessarily be present.
We must also pay attention to the disaffection and anti-politics that the impotence of politics in managing the crisis has generated.
Unofficially, the Government has already criticized the King, in an unusual situation, for having gone to Paiporta this Sunday, despite the risk warning given to him by Moncloa. The Minister of Transport, Oscar Puenteassured last night in La Sexta about the visit of the Kings to Paiporta that “it was probably not the most opportune moment” and that “it is possible that the calculation was wrong”. The image of the Kings at Paiporta is the image of state vulnerability.
The image of the Head of State, the President of the Government and the President of the Autonomous Community under a cloud of mud and insults It’s very powerful.
Experts in crisis management and communication explain that in extreme situations, like the one experienced these days in the Valencian Community, we must pay attention to the chronic nature of pain, that is, to what happens after the first moments of impact.
Applied to the effects of DANA, this would take into account that the pain, tension and helplessness are only just beginning. What is still missing is that, for example, collective pain is fixed as individual in each of the people concerned. And this has unpredictable consequences of all kinds, including political ones, which remain to be determined, and the risk of a gap between citizens and institutions.
These days, the impression of state inattention (which includes the Valencian Community) and it is necessary to check what developments are in the coming weeks and how political leaders are handling this situation of tension to see if it continues.
For the moment, even if it is less important than the deaths and personal and material damage, it is clear that politics is undergoing a shock which, depending on the way in which it is managed, will positively or negatively affect each of the actors.
There has already been a polarization or division between the institutions involved, the central government and the regional government, and a deterioration of institutions like the Royal Family, in relation to the Presidency of the Government, due to the incidents in Paiporta.
Before the launch of DANA, the government was breathing hard because of legal scandals like that of Begoña Gomez and that of Jose Luis Abalos and political disasters like that caused in Sumar by allegations of sexual abuse and sexist behavior by Iñigo Errejón. Today, all this is still alive, but already in retreat.
Pedro Sánchez sought to reach an agreement with his legislative partners to approve the Budgets for 2025after taking the deficit route negotiated with Junts. Now, the Government explains that it will be necessary to modify these accounts because an enormous budgetary effort will have to be made to deal with the lasting effects of the crisis, a chronification which will mark the new years.
It will be the Budgets which will give priority to the billions which, according to the Government’s first forecasts, will be necessary. Sánchez’s parliamentary partners will now have to assess whether a rejection of the accounts hinders the spending and investments needed to rebuild the areas affected by DANA. He Rally around the flag or effect of concentration around the flag.
‘The tone of the opposition
There is an effect on the opposition, because Alberto Nuñez Feijóo must decide whether to maintain the harsh confrontation with the government before DANA or whether to soften it. In moments of crisis, confrontation is sometimes exhausting, and the leader of the PP began Tuesday with criticisms of the government which he then clarified.
He then spoke indirectly about the emergency declaration that would take control away from Carlos Mazón and hand it over to the central government, which questions Sánchez’s action, but also disavows that of the Valencian president. The issue is the impression of the PP’s ability to manage very difficult situations.
This Monday, the Minister of the Presidency and Justice, Felix Bolaños, He will meet the parliamentary groups to explain the situation concerning the effects of DANA and the measures on which the Government is working. If the climate of polarization and confrontation had not suddenly changed, one could say that it is time to reach a grand agreement, but everything seems to indicate that the blocs will not change.
Another effect of DANA is the damage caused to institutions due to the polarization and disaffection caused by questioning authorities during the crisis. There was already fertile ground with questions like the housing problem, and now the images of the volunteers act as an accelerator to confuse everything.
Before the floods of last Tuesday, October 29, the Government was already extremely weakened by the accumulation of scandals. The last one was called Errejon affairwhich served to give Sumar the finishing touchSánchez’s government partner.
The training he leads Yolanda Diaz He has been hit by the accumulation of negative events, such as unfavorable electoral results, difficulties in having his own visibility in government and now the resignation of his parliamentary spokesperson due to alleged cases of sexual harassment.
The current distribution of political forces means that the PSOE knows that it is almost impossible for it to govern alone. needs the support of the left space of socialists. Which isn’t possible right now, because polls predict Sumar will get half the seats he did in 2023. And falling. The effect of the scandal has not yet been measured and it is not even known whether it will lead to further consequences.
Adding takes time, a lot of time to rebuild. Create an effective structure that it does not yet have, have strong leadership and have its own profile and achievements to present to its potential voters.
In fact, those of Yolanda Díaz they will delay the founding congress which they had planned for December and whose main presentation was to be prepared by Íñigo Errejón. A year ago Yolanda Díaz said it would be “the legislature of the time“, for his proposal to reduce working hours, but it could end up being “the legislature of the passage of time” to recover.
Time heals almost everything in politics and in this case, Sumar needs to shed his skin as soon and as completely as possible.
Also, a problem occurred to his left: the tough stance adopted by Podemos regarding budgets, enjoying the freedom to own the left lane of the political spectrum without the bonds of being in government.
Party leaders Ione Belarra They showed themselves willing to enter the field, after a consultation of the bases which conditions the approval of the budgets on the severance of relations with Israel and the reduction of rents by 40% by law.
Gale for open files
In Moncloa there is some worry because they thought the accounts would settle down if they brought Junts to the agreement and suddenly they found themselves in the position of Podemos. They explain that it can be a maximum position of violets and that Podemos will not dare to be the group that brings down the accounts of a progressive government to open the door to that of the PP and Vox. But no one takes fear away from the PSOE.
Podemos is trying to take advantage of Sumar’s moment of enormous weakness and aspires to bring together movements such as social unrest around the housing issue. And for that he needs those of Yolanda Diaz They don’t have time to get over it, which is to say it could almost be a good thing for them if the legislature ended abruptly.
They explain that they want voters to perceive the difference between a government with Podemos and with approved left-wing measures, and another with Sumar who ends up agreeing on taxes with Junts and without the possibility of approving measures on key issues such as housing.
Last week, Moncloa made gestures towards the PNV and Junts. For example, the agreement for the board of directors of RTVE and, above all, for the tax reform which includes the end of the tax on energy companies and the nuance of the tax on banks. This latest movement has the contraindication of irritating its left-wing partners, namely ERC, Bildu, Sumar and Podemos, to the point of risking a resounding parliamentary defeat.
In fact, some of these disgruntled MPs are explaining that if there is what they see as a shift to the right, they will find it difficult to support the budgets. And they pretend to be tired of hearing the “malmenorism“, that is, they are forced to support the PSOE to prevent the PP and Vox from developing.
The Government also needs time to move past the scandals that surround it and weaken it. For example, he predicts a long journey for the investigation of Begoña Gómezwife of the president, but assumes it will come to nothing.
It also takes time for this development to happen, they cannot go to the elections with this file open. More complicated is that of Jose Luis Abalos. The Executive is convinced that a storm will arise in the coming months, due to the flood of messages, documents and conversations resulting from these summaries.
In Moncloa they work with the idea that time buries everything. They explain that very recently there was only talk of amnesty and the political cost it would have for Sánchez, and now the world continues to turn. There is practically no damage to the PSOE and the issue is completely off the political agenda.
For the umpteenth time, Pedro Sanchez On Tuesday, he expressed his desire to lead the government until 2027, the exhaustion of the legislative deadlines. During his trip to India, he insisted that, despite the scandals and enormous parliamentary difficulties, his will was to continue.
In reality, a government president must always say that he will exhaust the legislature, even if he plans to interrupt it, but in his environment there is no doubt that it will happen that way.
The government is struggling to obtain new budgets. But if there is none, he also has the will to move forward, supported by good economic data and the positive effects of European funds, and supported by the infinite link that prevents the formation of an alternative majority for carry out a motion of censure.
Today, Sánchez has one more argument to defend the continuity of legislative power: the stability necessary to face the effects of the catastrophe that will continue for years.
