Despecialize the territories and better distribute livestock among the different regions, triple the surfaces dedicated to legume crops, reduce the use of nitrogenous mineral fertilizers by 70%, multiply the surfaces dedicated to agroforestry by ten, increase the proportion of organic surfaces at 25%, etc. The think tank The Shift Project published, on Thursday, November 28, its analysis of the trajectories to follow to achieve the objectives of carbon neutrality for 2050 in terms of agriculture, while promoting the resilience of this sector, one of the more vulnerable to global warming.
The think tank thus follows in the footsteps of other institutions that have previously worked in agricultural prospective scenarios, from the National Research Institute on Agriculture, Food and Environment (Inrae) to the Solagro association.
But for the think tank founded by engineer Jean-Marc Jancovici, who built his reputation on energy and climate issues, examining the issues of agriculture, living things and biodiversity is a minor issue. “ In recent years, we have worked on a plan to transform the French economy. But in agriculture, our analysis showed a big hole in the business, admits Clémence Vorreux, agriculture coordinator of the Shift Project. However, it is a key sector subject to strong constraints, which has an important role to play in decarbonization. »
The study published on Thursday, which will be followed by other sections in the coming months, in particular on agri-food production, therefore aims to fill this gap. The result of a consultation with researchers, agents in the agricultural sector and associations, this work is also accompanied by a consultation with 7,500 farmers, carried out with the help of the volunteer network of the “Shifters” association, the results of which are complete. It will be published in mid-December.
For the prospective part, several scenarios were studied, responding to different strategic priorities: promoting agricultural and food autonomy by reducing dependence on imports, contributing to international food security, providing energy to other sectors, etc.
Farmers concerned about the viability of their farm
But in the end what is proposed is a conciliation scenario. “We try to propose a resilient system, not too dependent on imports and that takes into account physical limitations.summarizes Corentin Biardeau-Noyers, one of the report’s co-authors. In terms of herd size, for example, there is no one number we recommend over another, but the challenge is to have an agricultural system that works. It is a question of balance between different parameters. »
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