The PwC economic and business consensus forecasts gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 3.4% in 2024 and 2.1% in 2025 and the majority of experts – 72% – describe the growth as “excellent or good ” for Spain. the economy is going through a difficult period.
This is one of the main conclusions of the Economic and commercial consensus, corresponding to the fourth quarter of 2024produced by PwC since 1999based on the opinion of a panel of 450 experts, businessmen and managers.
Growth projections for the Spanish economy this year from the PwC consensus (3.4%) are at the top of the estimates made by national and international organizations and entities. Behind these forecasts are those of the Funcas panel and the European Commission, which calculate an increase in GDP this year of 3%, while the Independent Authority for Budgetary Responsibility (AIReF) It forecasts growth of 2.9% in 2024.
Other institutions such as the Bank of Spain and the OECD, for their part, forecast GDP growth this year of 2.8%, while The Government’s estimates (2.7%) are among the most conservative.
The experts, businessmen and leaders who make up the PwC economic and commercial consensus panel recognize the good moment that the Spanish economy is going through, since 72% consider it excellent or good.
A year in advance, opinions (60.5%) point towards a slowdown in activity but I understood this with a natural phase of the economic cycle and not necessarily with a negative situation.
For his part, 93% believe that the situation of families It’s average or good. For the next six months, household consumption should remain stable (65%), and a 25% to increase.
Concerning the demand for housing, they go from 28% to 38% those who expect an increase while 49% think they will remain stable and 13% think they will decrease.
Two other relevant variables are export prospects and competitiveness. In both cases, the conviction is that the situation, in a year’s time, will remain the same as it has been until now. There is virtually no variation from with the responses from the previous Consensus, although there is a slight growth (from 15% to 23%) of those who think that the outlook for the foreign market could deteriorate.
Concerning the evolution of interest rates, the majority of those questioned expect a drop inthe current 3.75% to levels between 3% and 2.75% in June 2025, and between 2.5% and 2.2%, in December next year. They are also banking on a slight drop in inflation: in June 2025 they place it at 2% and for December 2025 at 2.1%.
In accordance with the recommendations
This quarter, the PwC report is dedicated to analyzing the proposals included in the Draghi report. 89% of experts say they agree with the diagnosis and recommendations put forward by Mario Draghi because “This is what Europe needs.”
But among this majority of supporters, 50% believe that political fragmentation and polarization, as well as state resistance to ceding sovereignty would prevent their realization.
One of the measures with the most agreement (82%), to progress towards a true single market and for the EU to compete with the United States and China, is the relaxation of competition rules which , in the opinion of these, when questioned, “They have considerably slowed down European industry.”
In this sense, 58% of respondents go further and they are in favor, in the specific case of the automobile sector, of imposing customs duties on Chinese electric vehicles. However, 35% are wary of this measure, because they believe that “it will generate a trade war with bad consequences for everyone.”
Overregulation
In general (70%), experts, managers and businessmen participating in the Consensus agree that excessive regulation is the main cause of the poor functioning of the EU, while 18% think that it is is the main factor. “from the bad image it has among citizens.”
Panelists are divided when asked whether they consider the public-private investment of 750,000 to 800,000 million euros proposed by the Draghi report to be feasible. 46% answered in the affirmativewhile 52% think the opposite, partly because they believe that companies are not able to invest these amounts of money.
In this sense, almost 60% of respondents They warn of the risk that these investments will end up increasing the EU’s debt without tangible results in the medium term.
