Stars continue to shine with force every night on Broadway, despite the winds against the US economy. The argument of this musical is already very manido: the unstable policy of Donald Trump suggests that a clear risk for the first economy in the world, which has experienced stability to the brutal growth of interest rates (Spoiler: He swallowed a lot of steroids during and in the pandemic). This is evidence that Cyclone 2.0 Trump put everything upside down And The fear of recession was again imposed In public debate in economic and financial circles. However, although cooling is a reality (nothing is eternal, possibly Broadway lights), indicators most related to macroeconomics do not flash red currently.
The brochure of economic uncertainty is collected as an unforgivable musical number to cast indicators that surpass official seriousness. The scratch index, one of the lipsticks … Options to see if the growth function is approaching at the end, multiple and exotic. Added to this list The number of spectators who fill the armchairs of musicals every evening The most prestigious in the world at the most art Avenue in New York.
Mororesses coefficients, credit evolution … Flat examples can be eloquent for opaque and methods of figure methods. A More human reaction to uncertainty The economy saves (sew a pocket) In this situation, it is clear that going to the Broadway musical is one of the first things, without which an attached American consumer can do.
The weekly assistance to the audience in the Broadway musicals is not only outraged in this first sector of 2025, but even above the previous years (not only those in which the cycle was a villain of work). In the schedule collected by Torsten Slok, Apollo Head Strategest, it is appreciated as a weekly ratio of assistants followed the seasonal rhythm, the identical rhythm, identical to the previous years, but with the main numbers. For The end of AprilA terrible month of tariffs, Weekly participants were about 350,000The highest data in the series (traveling until 2019). At the end of June, when in other years the autumn of summer begins, there was even a small growth.
It may seem that the courage to accept this fact is only as a symptom that there is no recession in the USA. In fact, the hat itself is quite located in its analysis, attaching only the schedule so that the recipient will visit his own conclusions. There are important nuances. You cannot ignore that Broadway participants They are usually among economically more lightweight consumers And with a smaller economic Susyo (these are households with an annual affordable income of more than $ 270,000, according to the Broadway League). In addition, this is not a secret, and many times passed that the recession appears as a quick blow to the back, which causes a picture that is becoming more and more. But in the current moment, What is under the curtain is an economy that cannot be amenableAnd the consumer, although in this case this is a more privileged spectrum that resists everything.
The inflation wave lived in these years offers a valuable lesson. For always “hedonistic” (words of Paul Donovan, chief economist UBS) American consumer, Enter with an excellent Walmart or Costco car It was genuine toothacheAsk any American American field if you were afraid to buy eggs.
Leaving the spotlights and returning to Gray figuresdata GDP This is the first. After the forest growth series, GDP recorded its first quarterly reduction (-0.5% per annum) in three years in the first quarter of 2025. Although it was expected, fear was provided. Surpass the layer like Opera ghost (A spanned musical on Broadway) to threaten staff and economics, we received too much for some. You had to go further. Figure Import The country acts as a ballast in GDP data (these are things that were bought from the outside), and in the first quarter of 2025, the fear of tariffs made us try to advance and import with the help.
It’s true that Personal consumptionThe true engine of the American economy (more than 70% of GDP) is clearly weakened during the entrance of the year (slight uncertainty, a small polar cold wave when folding the year). If in the preliminary reading of GDP these expenses were restored by 1.8%in annual calculus, in the first review the indicator was reduced to 1.2%, and in the last and last – to 0.5%. A wonderful decline for a powerful 4% of the last quarter of 2024. However, economists agree to indicate Import As a great culprit (4.66 percentage points is deducted from global data) and ensuring that, in addition to partial consumption restoration (good weather) Its effect will be the opposite in the second quarterField
With commercial data on May in the hand (imports decreased by 0.1%), analysts Economic capital These are accounts: “Reducing exports was mainly associated with a decrease in gold outputs, since export of goods, excluding gold, fell by 2.8%. The accounting is weak 2.5% annual“. In its very current reading, this Thursday GDP in the “Real Time” of the Federal Reserve Atlanta (GDPNOW indicator prepared with incoming data) reflects 2.6% annual For the second quarter. This preliminary indicator has already reflected the reduction to the official data of the first quarter.
The labor market does not turn off the voice
Reputation to be Late indicator When the recession passes its path precedes the labor market, but you still have to talk about it (this is an important guide for the US federal reserve system, which has a double mandate for monitoring employment and inflation). Although the prophets of the recession warn of the labor market for several months and months, which He will begin to fall on piecesThe truth is that it is This does not happenField
In addition to criticism of official numbers (which are overstated that if polls are not reacted enough, that if there are too many corrections), the overall picture is such that It is cool not to collapseThe field of the number of non -agent payment statements (pure employment) was amazing for four consecutive months. The last reading, compared to June, met this Thursday and opened again. Almost 150,000 positions were created in comparison with the expected just over 100,000. Not to mention the negative figure. The level of unemployment, far from recovery, as expected, fell by the tenth to 4.1%.
From Commerzbank, their analysts are observed by signs of weakness in the labor market. Something, which may be associated with uncertainty against tariffs, they indicate. However, they clarify “We are not observing a real fall”The field “We consider this a confirmation of our forecast that the US economy will expand at a slower pace in 2025, but Probably avoid recession“They wrote on this Thursday in a client’s note.” The stability of the unemployment level should also reassure the Fed, since the increase in the rate is usually a reliable indicator of the recession, and, unlike employment indicators, the unemployment rate is not checked, ”said his economist Bern Vaidenshteiner.
This coincides with the forecast that this year there will be no recession Daniel Vernazz, an economist from the Unicredit Research: “It is likely that it is likely that Economic uncertainty is reduced A little over time, from the current very high levels, financial conditions were facilitated after market turbulence in April, and the Great Law of Trump will modestly support economic activity. “Argues that speed Unemployment alone will rise to a guided maximum of 4.5%Field
Everything will depend, in any case, TrumpA field with him on stage There may always be a final act more And the result varies significantly. The intensification of their commercial battles or their attacks against the independence of the Fed can do everything significantly. At the moment, the music does not stop at Broadway.
