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This is the time of the year: we are talking about the state of the European Union.
An hourly speech, known in slang as Soteu, marks the beginning of the working season after the summer holidays in August. His main character, the president of the European Commission, enjoys how everyone looks at me to present recent achievements, first view the upcoming initiatives and give a political tone over the next 12 months.
This year, however, it will be heard.
When on Wednesday morning, Ursula von der Lein, a step of the European parliament begins, he will be in a position that still slipped away from her: fragility and volatility.
In fact, the unknown when he was first elected in 2019, the head of the commission managed to gradually cultivate the image of a reliable and effective leader, who could lead to a bloc to worried waters and push to unshakable depths.
His reaction to the Covid-19 pandemia led to the fact that its executive body involved unprecedented responsibilities of the market for 450 million citizens and the development of the recovery fund based on large-scale production of state debts. The full invasion of Russia to Ukraine further strengthened its powers, rising to one of the best votes on the Western Front against the aggressive invasion of Vladimir Putin.
At the end of 2022, Forbes magazine called Ursula von Der Leyen is the most powerful woman in the world, the name that she has preserved since then. Last year, reached his bustGaining 401 votes for a second term, the number of expected observers.
But just a few months later, her position passed a short walk with accusations and accusations of all aspects of the political spectrum in creating an inconvenient impression of the fire president.
The culmination of the growing opposition in July, when von der Lein was forced to defend her presidency from Condemnation movement Which were served with solid members of Europe. Although this was provocative for supporters of the proposal, which he brought up as “puppets” controlled by Russia, he certainly offered an olive branch to other legislators.
“I admit that there are members who may not sign this proposal, but have reasonable fears about some problems that he raises,” he told them.
“This is quite fair. This is part of our democracy, and I will always be ready to discuss any issue that this body wants, with events and arguments. ”
The discovery, by the same, fell into the void: two more separate proposals for condemnation Already in the processOminent foresight for the new working year.
“Ursula von der Lein is faced with a difficult task in the situation of the Union,” said Fabian Zulg, general director of the European Political Center (EPC), pointing to the internal turmoil, which is presenting many member states, Like FranceLike another headache.
“The best that he can hope for is to keep the ship stable, so it is unlikely that the situation in the trade union will offer a really ambitious agenda he needs.”
An agreement that is constantly subjected to
Dissatisfaction with President von der Lane is everywhere in parliament.
His own political family, the European People’s Party (EPP), began a full attack to undermine the legislation adopted in accordance with the green agreement, which once once called von Leyen as a “moment of man on the moon”.
EPP sometimes voted in synchronization with harsh and distant forces to achieve this goal, causing the anger of socialists, liberals and green, who believe that this informal alliance is a violation of the promise of this background.
Then the leader of the commission rejected the desire to cooperation With a harsh law, the main demand for progressives to give her a voice. But the EPP, which is not connected by his statement, took advantage of the dynamics of simplifying the rules, with enthusiasm, embraced by member states, to continue their agenda against the green agreement at the next stage.
The ideological conflict divided the Provuropeian Central Coalition, which should be based on the second period von der Lein. When she voted in parliament, a completely new college of her commissioners, The report was 370 votes forSignificantly lower than 401 votes that he received just a few months ago.
Since then, the cracks have been only deep.
Bloc reluctance imposes sanctions on Israel For his war in Gaza, he angered the left members of the European European ridge. Break its lines publicly. A proposal to reduce the emissions of greenhouse gases of the block by 90% by the end of 2040 Widely condemned Conservatives who vowed to kill her.
But this is the EC-SSHA trade agreement, which sent the opposition of excessive stimulation.
In accordance with the conditions that Completed Von Der Laienne at a private meeting with Donald Trump in Scotland, the vast majority of the products created by the EU and intended for the US market is 15%, while the vast majority of products produced in the United States and are designed to buy the EU. (The selected group of products, such as the aircraft, critical raw materials and semiconductor equipment, wins the mode “From zero to zero”).
In addition, this block seeks to spend $ 750 billion on US energy, invest $ 40 billion associated with artificial intelligence in the US economy at the end of Trump’s term. The United States did not take on such obligations.
Given the exceptional jurisdiction of the Commercute Policy Committee, the responsibility for the extremely united agreement fell largely for von der Lein, which affected what was still its greatest advantage: its reputation capable of criteria.
The most alarming for von der Lane is that The hardest criticism They come from the permanent proceedings standing behind his coalition, which believe that the agreement is a surrender, which obeys the bloc with American plans and torpedoes the goal of strategic autonomy.
Natalie Crachi, Director of Istituto Affari Interviconali (IAI), believes that the responsibility should be divided with member states who “undermine” negotiations with the hand of the executive branch, publicly advocating their individual interests.
“The problem is that the growing nationalism in Europe (and) grow far, has practically exploded and cut down on the fact that it could be a program for uniting the EU – and it is very clear, by definition, this is the work of the commission,” he said.
“I think that it would be unfair to blame the responsibility (for the agreement) exclusively on von der Lein, because in many respects this is a victim of a broader political context. You can say that he does not do enough to cope with this, but there is only so much that he can do it for this. ”
After several days of silence, von der Lein admitted that the deal was “stable, but incomplete,” and insisted that, at least, it would ensure “stability and predictability” during riots. Soon after this, the demand collapsed when Trump himself threatened to apply additional responsibilities for retaliation Antimonopathic fine of 2.95 billion euros I put a commission on Google.
Until she talks about her speech in Strasbourg, she will meet an audience that can prefer an explanation.