If the State Meteorological Agency (Aemet) increased orange to red -the maximum provided for in the National Plan for Prediction and Monitoring of Adverse Meteorological Phenomena (Meteoalert)- the bad weather warning at 7:30 a.m. on Tuesday 20, why did the Generalitat not increase the emergency in the province of Valencia at level 2 until 7:17 p.m.? This question is essential to understand the disaster caused by the powerful DANA which left more than 70 dead.
The Deputy Director of the Valencian Security and Emergency Response Agency, Jorge Suarezhas already stressed that the imbalance is due to the difference between the areas – national and regional – and the competences – meteorological on the one hand and civil protection on the other. “We work with procedures that regulate the cadence of warnings that increase the level of risk. The last link “is aimed at the population, in a situation of imminent risk“. This would be the message via Es-alert that the Valencians received after 8:00 p.m.
However, Aemet has been warning for days of accumulated precipitation of up to 200 l/m2 in the Valencian Community, compatible with the “extreme weather risk” which is indicated by a red level. However, it was only officially activated when it was detected that the precipitation and channel flow thresholds were exceeded on Tuesday morning. Given the robustness of the forecasts and the latency in responding to emergencies, Isn’t the meteorological agency showing conservatism by not issuing the warning earlier?
“Aemet is still conservative. It’s a small team of people that has a big responsibility at the state level. Activating a red notice involves significant mobilization other organizations: Civil Protection, State Security Forces, military…”, explains Juan Antonio Saladometeorologist and former Aemet. “We wait until the last moment before activating a red notice,” he continues, giving the example of his own Jerez this Wednesday 30.
“The orange level threshold was 80 l/m2 and some streets are already at 110. When the red warning is activated, this will be what the Meteorologists call this an “observed warning” because catalog what has already happenedThis may seem overly cautious, he admits, “but all of us who have been there know it’s not that simple.”
On the other hand, if Spain had a demographic alert system like that of the United States, this warning would be transmitted directly to the population. “In Spain we find ourselves facing the problem that The civil protection system is delegated to the autonomous communities. Aemet is acting cautiously in trying to avoid issuing the red notice too early. What should be faster is the chain that goes from when the red notice to warning system“.
This is how the mechanism works. “Aemet does not issue an alert, but a meteorological warning. This warning is received by the Civil Protection of each Autonomous Community. And from there, each community establishes its alert levels. It’s not a fast system at all.and there have already been many initiatives to try to implement a much more agile method. There is the telephone noticebut we find communities that activate it quickly and others that never do.
It is important to emphasize that although the Aemet advisories and the Civil Protection alerts are different cases, they have been consensual as part of the Weather Alert plan so that they mean the same thing. Thus, the red level involves “serious changes to daily activity” and the suspension of travel that is not “strictly necessary”.
And although the different emergency centers throughout Spain receive daily warnings with probabilities and possible effects, the issuance of a red notice directly involves the National Center for Monitoring and Coordination of Emergencies (CENEM) of the Directorate General Civil Protection and Emergencies (DGPCE). .
Although he recognizes the slowness of the mechanism, Salado does not agree that Aemet should have published the red notice several days in advance as a precautionary principle. “These are very difficult phenomena to predict. The red warning is usually issued by a static storm like the one that happened in Valencia, and the models leave you suspecting that it could happen, It is not possible to have complete security 24 hours before“.
Even if he believes that the announcements were “placed at the right time”, there remains, according to Salado, a “debate” which deserves to be opened. Knowing the huge impact what this would cause, would DANA not have deserved to receive its own name which would contribute to raising awareness among the population, as the storm Filomena? “If it’s about protecting lives, people don’t care if it’s a storm or DANA,” he reflects, lamenting the “technicality.” Aemet herself is no stranger to “internal debate,” she reveals, and it is to be expected that “new changes will emerge from this tragic episode.”
