Some 250 million Americans are poised to set the direction of their country and global politics for the next four years in Tuesday’s elections. The campaign was not peaceful. Many fear that neither Election Day nor subsequent ones will be either, as happened in 2020. It will be a close race that will be resolved with the former Republican president (and convicted felon) returning to power Donald Trump or with the nomination of the Democrat Kamala Harriswho would be the country’s first female president.
Now, let’s get to the point. We have prepared a quick and short guide for you to understand an electoral system full of particularities.
When are the elections in the United States?
For nearly two centuries, elections in the United States, held every four years, have been held on the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November. And this year, the appointment to the polls fell on November 5.
How is the president elected?
Technically, Americans who go to the polls today will vote for their next president, but they won’t choose him directly. In reality, the last word goes to the Electoral College, made up of 538 delegates (also called electors) distributed throughout the 50 states according to the size and population of the territory. So, when citizens vote, they will choose the voters, who will then support this or that candidate. The elector who wins in each state, even by a single point, will win all the electoral votes in that territory.
Why can the person with the fewest votes win?
The complex American electoral system allows elections to be won by a candidate who has not obtained the greatest popular support, as happened in 2016, when Trump succeeded Hillary Clinton, despite the fact that she obtained three million additional votes. SO all It depends on whether or not support is concentrated in key states. Because to win, a presidential candidate must have a simple majority of electoral votes. Or 270 voters. The problem is that in each state, the voter who wins, even by one vote, wins all the electoral votes in that territory.
How many candidates are there?
The leading candidates in the presidential election are Kamala Harris of the Democratic Party and Donald Trump of the Republican Party. However, there are also independent candidates and small parties. Thus, the activist and writer Cornel West, the environmental activist Jill Stein, candidate of the Green Party, and Chase Oliver, of the Libertarian Party, are also competing in these elections.
Can we vote in advance?
Yes. Although polls open early Tuesday, most states allow mail-in voting and in-person early voting. According to the latest official data, more than 75 million people have already voted. This represents more than 48% of the total votes cast in 2020.
When will the results be known?
It’s hard to say. The United States is divided into six different time zones, and to top it all off, each state has its own opening and closing time for its voting centers. The first to finish will be those in the eastern zone, states like Kentucky or Indiana, who will do so around midnight Spanish peninsula time. The last will be those on the West Coast, such as Alaska, where polling stations will remain open until 6 a.m. Wednesday. Once the polling stations close, a general picture of what happened can be taken. However, the result will not be definitive and will depend on the speed with which postal and advance votes are counted. In short: knowing the final result can take days.
What are the key states?
Most states have a very clear preference for the Republican or Democratic candidate, and this rarely changes. However, there are seven key states, called swing state or pivotal states, which are decisive for the result. The reason: they don’t have a defined trend. And not only that: some have a significant number of electoral votes. These are Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina.
What do the most reliable surveys say?
The most reliable polls assume, almost unanimously, that Kamala Harris will win, of course: very narrowly. All rigorous investigations except one, that of the Wall Street Journal. And, precisely, he calculates that Trump is above (by very little). However, as their authors explain, the surveys are not predictions, but a reflection of popular sentiment. And so it is advisable to take them with a grain of salt. And not only that: we will be very attentive to what is happening in the seven states mentioned above. The elections are being played out there, and every vote will count. Remember, in 2016, Trump carried Wisconsin by 23,000 votes. And Biden, in 2020, for 21,500. This is why you need to be aware of how minorities will vote.
Why are minorities important?
We have written a lot about this. We explained how a hurtful joke in the final stages of the campaign can ruin the expectations of a strong candidate. We are of course referring to the mention of Puerto Rico as “a garbage island” by a Trumpist comedian: it turns out that in several swing states, Puerto Ricans constitute the largest migrant population, if not the second largest. We also commented on the doubts of thousands of Arab-Americans: they don’t know who to vote for, or whether they should vote, because they vote with Gaza in mind. We detailed the weight of women in city suburbs, the difficulty of measuring the votes of black and Latin American communities due to their diversity, and the importance of not underestimating the anger of non-Trumpist Republicans. Every vote counts.
Where to follow the elections?
If you want to follow the results of the 2024 US elections live, you can do so on EL ESPAÑOL. We’ll be monitoring the countdown through the early hours of Wednesday…and beyond.
