PBeyond the last-minute twists and turns, the composition of the new European Commission revealed on Tuesday 17 September reflects three trends: the authority of its president, Ursula von der Leyen, the evolution of the balance of power between Member States within Europe and, at the same time, the rise of right-wing political forces confirmed by the European Parliament elections in June.
If she did not achieve parity in this college, which ultimately included only eleven women out of twenty-seven commissioners, Angela Merkel’s former defence minister has nothing to envy of the “strong men” in the way she approached this second term. The episode, ignominious for France, which saw the dismissal of Thierry Breton, whom she did not want because of personal enmity, and his replacement at the last moment by the more docile Stéphane Séjourné, illustrated her ability to cope with the president of one of the two most important states of the Union without any special thanks for the services rendered.
Overall, the President has made an effort to remove the more restless personalities. It is important that he now establishes an effective relationship with the new President of the European Council, the Portuguese Antonio Costa.
Coming from the Christian Democratic Party, the German CDU, M.me Von der Leyen has a right-wing-dominated college of commissioners: 13 of them from the centre-right group, the European People’s Party (EPP). In a sign of worrying times, she has had to include representatives of the far right, with Italian Raffaele Fitto, from the Fratelli d’Italia party, as executive vice-president, and Austrian Magnus Brunner, from the ÖVP, who will handle the migration issue.
Another reality is the growing influence of Central and Eastern European countries, in the context of the Russian war in Ukraine, compared to the relative weakening of Germany and France. Poland benefits by securing the crucial post of budget commissioner. The Baltic countries dominate foreign policy and security: Estonian Kaja Kallas succeeds Spaniard Josep Borrell and Lithuanian Andrius Kubilius takes on the new defence portfolio, the scope of which is yet to be defined.
A risky bet
France, for its part, is losing a commissioner who, behind his turmoil, had an excellent European record. Paris claims that in exchange it has gained not only a post as executive vice-president but also a capital portfolio with a particularly wide scope, an industrial strategy, reflecting Emmanuel Macron’s ambition for European sovereignty.
On paper, that is true. But in Brussels, personalities count. Practice will tell whether Séjourné, who knows the European machine well but is just discovering the economic and industrial spheres, will be able to prevail over the experienced commissioners he must supervise, such as Valdis Dombrovskis, responsible for the economy, and Maros Sefcovic, responsible for trade, and over the Spanish vice-president, Teresa Ribera, a political heavyweight, responsible for the ecological transition and with a reputation for being anti-nuclear. He will also have to get rid of the image of President Macron as a transmission belt.
The gamble is risky. In light of the immense investment challenge and the loss of competitiveness exposed by Mario Draghi’s recent report, we must have high hopes of success, for Europe even more than for France.
