Home Latest News the unexpected poll which opens the door to Trump’s defeat

the unexpected poll which opens the door to Trump’s defeat

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A poll in Iowa that unexpectedly placed Kamala Harris ahead of Donald Trump in what was previously considered a safe state for Republicans has sent shockwaves among American poll watchers. Selzer’s poll, conducted for the Des Moines Register newspaper, shows Harris ahead of her Republican rival by three points.

Selzer is the top-rated pollster by guru Nate Silver, one of the most followed polling experts in the United States. “In a world where Harris wins Iowa, she will likely also sweep other parts of the Midwest, particularly Michigan and Wisconsin, in which case she is already almost certain to win the electoral college,” Silver said on his site Internet.

Iowa in the Midwest is not among the seven battleground states for the 2024 elections, which are the Metal Belt states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania and the Sun Belt states of Georgia, North Carolina, Nevada and Arizona.

Although pundits and pollsters are reluctant to place too much weight on any given poll, Selzer is a widely respected polling organization with a good record in Iowa if Harris were merely competitive in Iowa – which Trump won with as many points in 2016 as in 2020. – could radically reshape the race.

Selzer’s poll puts Harris ahead of Trump, 47% to 44% among likely voters. A September poll gave Trump a four-point lead over Harris and a June poll gave him an 18-point lead over then-candidate Joe Biden.

“It’s hard for anyone to say they saw it coming,” pollster J Ann Selzer, president of Selzer & Co., told The Register. “He’s clearly risen to a leadership position.”

The poll shows that it is women who are behind the late shift to Harris in the state. If true and confirmed, it would also be significant as Harris’ campaign has focused on appealing to women amid a significant gender gap with Republican-leaning male voters. Harris and her campaign have focused on overturning the federal right to abortion by the conservative-dominated U.S. Supreme Court.

The reaction from pundits and pollsters was largely one of shock and surprise, although it was also pointed out that a rival polling group continued to keep Trump ahead in Iowa.

“It is incredibly courageous to publish this investigation. This won’t put Harris at the top of our forecast, as another poll released today in Iowa was also positive for Trump. But I wouldn’t want to play poker against Ann Selzer,” Silver said.

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