The US elections on November 5 will be crucial for the future of the economy and financial markets. It is important to know how the American electoral system works, the possible scenarios and the consequences of each of these scenarios.
In the US electoral system, the election of the president is not direct, but electors are elected to form the electoral college, which votes and ultimately elects the president and vice president of the US government.
On November 5, the two chambers of the United States are renewed: the Senate and the House of Representatives. Congress includes both houses. So when it is mentioned that a party controls Congress, it actually means that it controls both houses: the Senate and the House of Representatives.
The Senate has 100 senators, two from each state, who serve for six years. Every two years, a third of the senators are renewed. During these elections, 33 senators are elected. The House of Representatives has 435 members who serve for two years. The entire House is renewed every two years, as happens during these elections.
The election of the president is carried out by the Electoral College composed of 538 electors (electoral votes): 100 senators, 435 members of the House of Representatives and 3 electors of Columbia (Washington DC), who although it is not a state, it elects three electors.
A particularity of the American electoral system is the lack of proportionality in the distribution of voters within the electoral college in relation to the percentage of votes for each candidate. In all states except Maine and Nebraska, the winning party takes all of the electors assigned to that state. The number of electors allocated to each state is based on its population. The states with the highest number of electors are California with 54, Texas with 40, and Florida with 30, while Wyoming, South Dakota, and Delaware have only 3 electors each..
This system means that the candidate who obtains the most votes nationally is not necessarily ultimately elected president. This happened in 2000 and in 2016. Additionally, a small difference in votes in a state between the two candidates means that the winner takes all of that state’s delegates, despite the fact that the vote distribution is 50.1% versus 49.9%. So, in the 2000 election, Bush Jr. won Florida by just 538 votes against Al Gore and was eventually elected president. Because of this small difference, he did not win any of the 30 electors from Florida and Al Gore, which was decisive in tipping the scales in favor of Bush Jr. in the electoral college vote.
This year, before December 11, each state must resolve any claims and award the 538 electoral votes. On December 17, the Electoral College meets and electors in each state vote for president and vice president. Voting is individual for each delegated voter, without there being a strict voting discipline like that which exists in Spain. This implies that in the event of an adjusted result in the distribution of electoral delegates, the change in the direction of the vote compared to the expected orientation of one or more delegates can modify the election of the president. Finally, on January 6, the votes are formally counted during a joint session of Congress (Senate and House of Representatives).
To consider a candidate a winner, he or she must obtain at least 270 votes. In the event of a tie of 269 votes, a vote is taken during said session, giving each State one vote. Whoever obtains at least 26 votes would be elected president. This extraordinary situation has occurred twice in history, in 1801 and in 1825.
Analyze the practical consequences of the election to the presidency of the D. Trump or K. Harris It is essential to know the resulting composition of the Senate and the House of Representatives: whether the president-elect’s party controls both chambers or just one. Knowing the powers of the president outside the chambers and the decisions that must necessarily have the approval of the chambers is decisive for predicting the consequences of different scenarios. This will be analyzed in the next article.
