With the assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrullah, tension between Iran and Israel entered the next stage. Iran launched new missile attacks against Israel. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called Iran’s missile attack on Israel a “big mistake” and said it would cost Tehran dearly. Following the assassination of the leader of the group known as Iran’s strongest proxy force in the Middle East, the risks of the conflict spreading to a wide geographical area are increasing by the day.
“Caspian” The newspaper published an article on the subject.
Reactions to Israel’s attack
Against the backdrop of rising tensions between Israel and Hezbollah, including Iran, the United States has decided to send additional air forces to the Middle East. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said that after Lebanon, Israel’s next target will be Türkiye. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian did not say that “Israel must disappear” like his predecessors. Instead, he said: “We want peace for all and we do not want war with any country.” But the reality is that the attacks do not decrease. Iran justifies its attacks with the right of self-defense. Israel is trying to get the United States not only to support it, but also to be a party to direct conflicts.
Either way, the situation is very dangerous. There are two scenarios for what may happen in the near future. The first is that the Iranian missile attack will work and tensions will not increase. According to another scenario, official Tehran on the one hand, and Israel and the United States on the other, will enter into a direct war.
A question that makes Tehran think
Now everyone is wondering what Israel’s response to Iran’s missile attack will be. According to the media, there may be two objectives in this regard. First, Israel will attack Iran’s nuclear facilities, and second, more realistically, it will attack oil bases.
The official position of the United States, Israel’s greatest ally, regarding the first scenario is already clear. US President Joseph Biden said he does not consider it appropriate for Israel to attack nuclear facilities in Iran. Thus, Biden responded to the pertinent question from journalists and briefly said “no.”
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi also expressed confidence that Israel will not dare to attack nuclear facilities on the territory of his country. However, Tehran is seriously preparing for Israeli retaliatory strikes.
Israel’s goal
The attack on Lebanon and operations against Hezbollah, which are the main sources of tension between both countries, continue at full pace. The Israeli military claimed that the goal of the attack on Lebanon was to destroy Hezbollah targets along the border. An army division consisting of at least 10,000 soldiers participated in the operation. Israel said last month that its main goal in the war is the return of up to 60,000 residents displaced by Hezbollah attacks from northern Israel. Michael Horowitz, head of the intelligence division at Bahrain-based consultancy Le Beck International, says Israel is trying to destroy Hezbollah’s infrastructure along the border, including tunnels and observation posts. “In this sense, it says ‘limited’, because the objective is not to defeat Hezbollah, this would require a broader occupation of most of Lebanon,” he said. However, it is unclear whether Israel’s operations will be limited. American officials note that when Israel entered southern Lebanon in 1982, there was talk of a “limited” offensive, but that turned into an 18-year occupation. Horowitz says Israel risks going deeper if it tries to create a buffer zone in southern Lebanon. But Israel’s leaders are unlikely to want to be dragged into a protracted war, he said. “At the same time, if Israeli soldiers withdraw, Hezbollah will return and launch new attacks against Israel, which will be embarrassing for the Israeli government,” he said.
toothless lebanese army
It should be noted that it is no secret that Iran is trying to stop Israel mainly through its allied forces. At the same time, their greatest hope was, of course, “Hezbollah.” However, the group has experienced serious setbacks in recent months. Israel killed most of the group’s leaders, neutralized a significant part of its military arsenal and disabled its communications. Despite the weakening of Hezbollah, experts say that this group cannot be crossed, has a large manpower and a military arsenal. “Israel believes that Hezbollah is in a state of chaos, that there is a gap in the command and control system. We can expect initial progress and success from the Israeli side,” said Hamidrza Azizi, an employee of the German Institute for International Security and Security. Business. However, he claims that “Hezbollah” has a big advantage in ground combat. Because the group has experience in guerrilla warfare and knows the local terrain. Founded in the 1980s, Hezbollah has become the dominant military force in Lebanon, eclipsing the country’s traditional military. According to Azizi, the Lebanese army is very weak compared to Hezbollah, which has 40,000 fighters. Since “Hezbollah” controls most of the region, the participation of the Lebanese army in ground combat against Israeli forces does not seem realistic.
