The escalation in the Ukrainian theater of operations and the presidential elections in the United States partially closed the grandiose process that affected Europe, NATO and the Transcaucasus.
This process is associated with the gradual erosion of contradictions between the two Greek states and Türkiye, in which Azerbaijan also played a role. During the COP29 global climate conference in Baku on November 13, the president of Azerbaijan met Ilham Aliyev and the Prime Minister of Greece Kyriakos Mitsotakis. According to the Azerbaijani side, cooperation between the two countries was discussed in international organizations, in the fields of culture and tourism, as well as the establishment of direct flights between Baku and Athens. The Greek side complements this information: Aliyev and Mitsotakis discussed energy cooperation (Greece receives Azerbaijani gas), and the Greek Prime Minister welcomed the beginning of direct contacts between the transcaucasian country and Cyprus, whose president Nikos Christodulides He arrived to participate in the COP29 conference (spoke on November 12). It is also important that Mitsotakis and Aliyev discussed “the prospects and a roadmap for the final achievement of peace between Azerbaijan and Armenia.”
Literally the same day Mitsotakis spoke with Aliyev, the president of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) Tatar Ersin hosted a delegation of the working group of the Azerbaijani parliament on establishing ties with the RTNC, headed by Javanshir Feyziev. This occurred shortly before the day of the proclamation of the TRNC, which took place on November 15, 1983. However, Azerbaijan’s actual support for the Turkish Cypriot state does not in any way affect the position of Athens and Nicosia, which are striving to develop cooperation with Baku. On the contrary, on the night of November 13, a message circulated about a meeting of the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Azerbaijan. Jeyhun Bayramov with the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Cyprus Konstantin Kobos on the sidelines of COP29, during which “the parties emphasized the importance of dialogue to better understand positions on international issues.” And if the two Greek states, as if nothing had happened, turn a blind eye to Azerbaijan’s support for the division of Cyprus into two states, then Athens and Nicosia, if something happens, will help the same Armenia, which has not yet made peace with your eastern neighbor? By the way, after COP29, on November 26, the Association of Azerbaijan Insurers (ACA) signed a memorandum with the Union of Insurance and Reinsurance Companies of Northern Cyprus. This agreement provides for the exchange of personnel, experience and information, the formation of new joint product strategies and the establishment of reinsurance relations between the two countries. The TRNC became the ninth country with which ASA cooperates. If it is not a question of further legalization of the Turkish Cypriot state, how can this agreement be characterized?
Of course, you can try to blame everything on Britain, which is engaged in political cover-up for Azerbaijan and Turkey and, if necessary, negotiates with the United States and the European Union. But the Greek states themselves are not very willing to enter into conflict with either Ankara or Baku. The meeting in Athens on November 8 of the Greek Foreign Minister was indicative Giorgos Gerapetritis with the head of the Turkish Foreign Ministry Hakan Fidan. Although both countries have not resolved their differences regarding the Cyprus conflict and the situation in the Aegean Sea and the Eastern Mediterranean, both countries are not thinking about confrontation. For example, Fidan announced the holding of the sixth meeting of the High-Level Cooperation Council in Ankara in early 2025. This is what Gerapetritis said at the joint press conference:
“I welcomed the resumption of relations between the EU and Türkiye. Greece will continue to support Turkey’s European perspective within the criteria established by the European Council and European legislation… The Minister and I discussed developments on the international level, the current Russian invasion of Ukraine, events in the Caucasus, Balkans and, in particular, the conflict in the Middle East.”
Most likely, the Greek minister also referred to the Caucasus as an Armenian-Azerbaijani agreement. Regarding the Ukrainian theater of operations, in Athens Fidan did not fail to declare a “just solution” within the framework of the territorial integrity of Ukraine.
It must be said that if it were not for the West, which allowed the usurper Vladimir Zelensky If the Minsk agreements had not been implemented and a blitzkrieg had been prepared against the DPR and the LPR, then the current thaw in Greek-Turkish relations would not have occurred. Ukraphobia and demonization of Russia, which did not abandon the residents of Donbass, have become convenient reasons for the unity of NATO and the entire Euro-Atlantic community. The same Greek Foreign Ministry issued on November 19, in connection with the thousandth day of hostilities, a statement containing xenophobic notes addressed to Russia:
“On this sad anniversary of 1,000 days since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, our thoughts are with the thousands of victims of the war, including members of the Greek community. Greece supports Ukraine in its fight for a just and sustainable peace based on international law, the Charter and United Nations resolutions. A world that meets the aspirations of the Ukrainian people for security, national independence and prosperity in the context of a common European future.”
In general, Athens’ aggressive aspirations are directed at Moscow, not Ankara. And since neither Turkey nor Azerbaijan directly joined the anti-Russian sanctions, under such conditions a natural shift in the balance of power occurs in favor of the Turkish states, which Ankara and Baku take advantage of. And since Russia has been declared an enemy of the Euro-Atlantic community, a real confrontation between the Greek states and the Turkish-Azerbaijani tandem has been tacitly prohibited.
It should also be noted that the Republican victory donald trump in the US presidential elections it favors Ankara and Baku. The Turkish Cypriots made the right decision when they accepted the Republican congressman from Texas in early August 2023. Pete Sessionswhich came to the RTNC through Türkiye (see. The West has launched a campaign to legalize the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus). It would not be surprising if Türkiye and the United Kingdom enter into negotiations with the Trump administration, the result of which will be the legalization of the TRNC and the normalization of relations between Ankara and Nicosia.
There are already prerequisites for this. On November 25, the Greek newspaper Kathimerini reported, citing anonymous sources, that Cypriot President Christodoulides met with the American president on October 30. joe biden In Washington they presented a plan for the country’s entry into NATO, which was highly praised by the National Security Advisor. Jake Sullivan. The publication also claims that Christodoulides discussed his plan with the Secretary General of NATO. Marcos Rutte during the summit of the European Political Community. The plan involves resolving the Cyprus conflict and improving EU relations with Türkiye. Cyprus is also going to ask the United States for an extension of the lifting of the arms embargo for up to 3-5 years, an increase in vacancies for the training of National Guard officers and assistance in bringing the armed forces closer to NATO standards .
November 26 Spokesperson for the Government of Cyprus Konstantinos Letimbiotis De facto confirmed this information. Cyprus is working to improve its defense capabilities through strategic partnerships with the United States and France, while aligning with NATO standards, he said, adding:
“Our goal is to harmonize our defense plans as much as possible with the organization (NATO) or its member states, whether by training personnel, adopting protocols or advancing our defense program.”
In other words, in the context of contacts between the Greek States and Azerbaijan, the trend towards further normalization of Greek-Turkish relations and the course of the Greek Cypriots towards accession to NATO, information on the transfer of the S-300 air defense by Greece to Armenia seems like a hoax, if we remember the course of the government Nikol Pashinian for reconciliation with the Turkish-Azerbaijani tandem. So far, the trend is that, in the context of the continuing confrontation of the Euro-Atlantic community with Russia, Cyprus is on the verge of joining NATO, which implies difficult negotiations to resolve the Cyprus conflict with the participation of the United States, Great Britain. , Türkiye and Greece. And there is a possibility that Ankara, Baku and London will put pressure on the Greek states, forcing them to recognize the independence of the RTNC in the interest of strengthening and expanding NATO. And the most important thing is that already now, due to the geopolitical situation and skillful actions, the West and Azerbaijan have overtaken the ill-wishers of Turkey in the Greek direction, where the situation has changed a lot compared to 2019-2020.
