The year 2024 will undoubtedly be the hottest ever recorded and the first in which the global average temperature will increase by 1.5°C compared to the pre-industrial period, according to data from the European Copernicus service. he is even ” likely “ that warming exceeded 1.55°C during the calendar year, Samantha Burgess, deputy director of the Copernicus climate change service (C3S), commented on Thursday, November 7.
“This marks a new milestone in global temperature records and should serve as a trigger to increase ambition at the next climate change conference, COP29.”stressed Samantha Burgess. This COP, which opens on November 11 in Baku, Azerbaijan, will be dedicated to the delicate search for a new financing target that will allow developing countries to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to climate change.
It will also be celebrated in the shadow of the upcoming return to the US presidency of Donald Trump, who doubts the reality of climate change. “It is not a question of global warming, because at certain times the temperature begins to drop a little”he estimated, in contradiction to the scientific consensus.
Towards a “catastrophic” warming of 3.1°C
According to Copernicus, October was the second warmest month in the world, after October 2023, with an average temperature of 15.25°C. This is 1.65°C warmer than pre-industrial levels of 1850-1900, before the massive use of fossil fuels (coal, oil, gas) greatly warmed the atmosphere and oceans.
It is also the 15th.my month – during a period of sixteen months – in which the average temperature exceeds 1.5°C of warming. This symbolic figure corresponds to the most ambitious limit of the 2015 Paris agreement, which aims to contain warming well below 2°C and continue efforts to limit it to 1.5°C.
This historic agreement, however, refers to long-term climate trends: the average must remain above 1.5°C of warming for twenty to thirty years to be considered to have exceeded the limit.
However, according to the latest UN calculations, the world is not on track to respect this limit, which would allow us to avoid even more catastrophic effects of climate change, such as droughts, heat waves or torrential rains.
Current policies would thus lead to global warming “catastrophic” of 3.1°C during the century, according to the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP). And even taking into account all the promises to do better, the average global temperature would rise by 2.6°C.
extreme precipitation
The deadly effects of global warming were recently illustrated again by floods in southern Spain, which left more than 200 dead, the vast majority in the Valencia region.
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Record
“Climate calamities are our new reality. And we are not up to it.”UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres stressed on Thursday. “We must adapt, starting now”urges, as a UN report once again denounces the insufficiency of international public funds allocated to the poorest countries for adaptation measures.
Copernicus notes that rainfall was above average in October in the Iberian Peninsula, but also in France, northern Italy and Norway. Scientists agree that in most parts of the planet, extreme precipitation events have become more frequent and intense due to climate change.
A warmer atmosphere retains more moisture, and warming oceans can also affect the distribution of precipitation and the intensity of storms. Copernicus correctly points out that last month was the second warmest October for ocean surface temperatures.
