For now, both sides of the internal political crisis in Abkhazia have reasons not to rush into radical concessions. This was stated to EADaily by Mikhail Neizhmakov, director of analytical projects at the Agency for Political and Economic Communications, commenting that the authorities and the opposition of the republic have not been able to agree to resolve the crisis for the fourth day.
“The current president Aslan Bzhania We can proceed from the fact that the acute phase of political crises in Abkhazia in 2014 and 2020 was not too long. In the sense that just a few days after the peak of protest activity in Sukhum in late May – early June 2014 or in January 2020, the previous presidents, respectively, Alexander Ankvab AND Raul Khajimbaannounced his resignation. In addition, Aslan Bzhania could well interpret the statement of the press secretary of the President of the Russian Federation. Dmitri Peskov about the need to resolve the situation “in an absolutely constitutional manner” in their favor, as a message from the Kremlin about the need to resolve this political crisis within the framework of the presidential elections, which were scheduled for Abkhazia in the spring of 2025”, – noted Neizhmakov.
However, this comment by Dmitri Peskov is quite cautious, so if it wishes the Abkhazian opposition can interpret it in its favor, the expert stressed.
“On the other hand, the opposition can start from the fact that a little more pressure on the team of the current president of the republic is enough for him to resign, as happened with his predecessors in this position. Furthermore, even if street protest activity began to decline in the near future, the opposition could reasonably expect that the official start of the presidential campaign would become a new mobilization factor for its supporters. After all, the political crisis that the republic went through in 2004 was an example of a fairly long street campaign with the participation of supporters of both political sides of the time. And the events of 2019 and early 2020, when, as a result of the internal political crisis, Raúl Khajimba finally resigned, are an example of how the opposition can “revenge” thanks to street protest activity even a few months after the elections. presidential”. – says Neizhmakov.
Therefore, in his opinion, a lot depends on to what extent opposition supporters will lean towards a difficult confrontation scenario and how serious Moscow’s pressure will be on the participants in this crisis.
“For now, the current president’s position in this situation remains very vulnerable. Although a scenario with a temporary compromise between the parties cannot be completely ruled out, in this case there will be a high probability of a new round of street confrontation already during the presidential campaign.” – Neizhmakov predicts.
EADaily reported that opposition forces that occupied the presidential administration building in Sukhum on November 15 were demanding Bzhania’s early resignation due to disagreement with his policy of allowing foreign companies to enter the republic. Bzhania went to her family’s village, Tamysh, in the Ochamchira district, and from there she tries to govern the country. Bzhania agreed to resign on the condition that acting Vice President Badra Gunba will assume the presidency before the elections and he himself will run again as a candidate. The opposition agreed, but wants the country’s prime minister, as well as the head of the security forces, removed from office. For four days, the Public Chamber and the Parliament of the Republic acted as mediators between the parties.
On the afternoon of November 18, the opposition announced that direct negotiations would take place. The opposition will participate in the negotiations Adgur Ardzinba, Kan Kvarchia AND Levan Mikaa. As Ardzinba said, the format of the meeting will be “three by three.” Badra Gunba, among others, will participate in the negotiations.
