Francisco Martin Leon She worked for more than three decades for the State Meteorological Agency (Aemet) and, since her retirement, has been one of the most notable climate and weather broadcasters on the networks since Weatherized. However, the veteran meteorologist claims to have witnessed “few” “real-time” disasters like this one, “neither the Pantanada of 1982 nor the cold drop of 1996.” Prediction models, he insists, made it possible to accurately predict the devastating impact that this DANA would have, which is why he invites review warning and alarm systems to start adopting emergency measures, even a few days in advance.
Was the red alert level not up to the task in the face of phenomena as destructive as this DANA? Do we need a “black notice”?
I don’t agree. I have worked at Aemet for 36 years specifically on serious phenomena. In this case, for six or seven days, the numerical forecast models gave a potentially very active DANA situation. Five days in advance, we could see that 28, 29 and 30, 300 liters per square meter could be accumulated. This is outrageous from a meteorological perspective, as the models do not go beyond these overwhelming quantities. And a black color would add absolutely nothing.
And yet, the accumulated precipitation far exceeds forecasts.
It happened as with Filomena: as the 28th and 29th approached, all the models were already reporting regions of Andalusia – from Málaga to Almería -, Murcia, Albacete, and above all a region of the Valencian Community that stood out considerably. Predicting up to 300 liters is an aberration, a deluge for a model that has a resolution of 10 km. And I already predicted that something big was going to happen in the Iberian Peninsula.
Do you consider that the dangerousness of the episode was sufficiently communicated to the public?
A problem of sociological awareness appears here: it seems to me that these warnings have been underestimated. We knew that the very active DANA situation would generate an environment favorable to the development of organized, violent, humid and deep storms. Aemet issued a red notice of the type observed on Tuesday morning, that is to say when there was already data of 150 to 200 liters of rain. From my personal point of view, without any meteorological responsibility, this could have been improved by putting red alerts two or three days in advance.
How could we have become more aware that this was not “just another storm”?
We have the example in the United States, with the two hurricanes which hit Florida this year. In the first case, the governor issued emergency evacuation orders, and in the second, it was President Biden who called for evacuating areas. I’m not saying that in Spain the president of the government must come forward, but if this is a phenomenon that happens every 30 or 50 years, someone at a high level must come forward. And another thing we need to import is predictions based on the impacts that phenomena will have on the population. This is done in the United States and parts of Europe, but not yet in Spain.
Do you think that the “fiasco” last year in Madrid with the Es alert and the DANA announcement that did not reach the capital led to this latest alert being delayed?
I don’t think so. There is some conservatism when it comes to issuing red level alerts, and I maintain that it is better to come out with a red in two or three days, especially now that we have much prediction tools more powerful. But the alert is something else, which depends on the political attitudes of the person who decides. The decision to suspend classes in many cities on the 29th was very good, but it would have been even better to avoid all mobility, warning people to work from home.
However, it is striking that 500 l/m2 was achieved in eight hours in places like Chiva. No one had planned this much.
Numerical models tend to underestimate precipitation. But there’s something else: we now have a first-class fuel reservoir right next door, the Mediterranean Sea. The heat from the water causes it to accumulate a lot of energy and acts as a steam supplier for the most intense storms. This logically increases the amounts of rain recorded at the end. The digital model has its limits: without a trained human being, the predictor does not provide added value, this prediction is useless.
What are the “mesoscale convective systems” that meteorologists have detected accompanying this DANA?
There are different types of storms. A simple storm lasts 10 minutes, a deep storm lasts six to twelve hours, but these systems we’re talking about are large cluster storm groups who organize themselves to create a multicellular organism, with a longer life cycle. They can reach enormous proportions as in this case, which are called “mesoscale convective complexes“. The Tous Pantanada of 1982 was produced by the first mesoscale convective complex identified in Europe.
Here’s what I mentioned earlier: Warnings should be issued based on relative risk to the relationship, not just raw data.
Clear. I can predict 200 liters in 24 hours, but it is not the same that it falls in the Bardenas – with all due respect – as in a very populated area, with economic and social impact, with railways and roads, etc.
Do we need to better integrate the authorities and resources in Spain in the face of these phenomena with a high destructive impact?
The Tous Pantanada of October 1982 was a shock that revolutionized the forecasting techniques of the Former National Institute of Meteorology. Promotion of collaboration with Civil Protection and implementation of an alert plan. This DANA should be a new stimulus for the different organizations to come together, review and update alert and early warning plans for the population. We must remedy, for example, the lack of personnel at Aemet.
Aemet now has the additional difficulty of having become the scapegoat for Holocaust denial and its virulent attacks.
I know conspiracy theories. I experienced them. I received death threats, I had to block dozens of people. Because? For putting weather and climate data on the table from a scientific perspective that goes against certain ideologies and certain people. The only thing I can say is that science saves lives if applied effectively.
What can we expect from these “new generation DANAs” that you anticipate in a publication?
The hot Mediterranean is like an open can of gasoline in front of the house: nothing happens until someone brings a flame, and here the flame is DANA. What will happen in the future? We don’t know if climate change will generate more DANA, it could even generate less. But the fuel will increase, and the DANAs that arrive will be accompanied by overwhelming rains like now.
Is it not possible that natural climate fluctuations, such as the Niño/Niña phenomenon, will help to attenuate the heat of the sea in the years to come?
In the case of the Mediterranean, in principle no. El Niño and La Niña occur too far away to affect you, and the warming trend is increasingly positive. We have already reached 32ºC this summer and the region will continue to warm up.
Should we therefore assume that extreme phenomena are already part of our new climate reality?
You will have to be very attentive. This is the worst situation: we get used to relatively dry and stable weather, and when DANA arrives, we are not prepared. A complete review of the system for forecasting and communicating alerts and alerts to citizens is necessary. From my point of view, it showed that they can be very, very improved.
