In the United States presidential electionsthere is a bloc of voters in a key state that is starting to unbalance these opinion studies, very close between the two candidates, former President of the United States Donald Trump and Vice-President Kamala Harris. started to give up Harris and can give victory to Donald Trump: These are the Hispanics of Pennsylvaniaa swing state among undecided states (Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina, Georgia, Michigan and Wisconsin). Why did they abandon the Democratic Party? Due to his dislike for United States President Joe Biden and his preference for Donald Trump’s proposals on the economy, illegal immigration and security.
Inside Pennsylvania Latin Beltwhich is located in the east of the state, particularly in the Reading-Allentown region, we observe this change in voting trend: Reading, Pennsylvania, is 70% Latino. The Democratic victory in 2020 was then overwhelming, Joe Biden won by 45 points. But now, much less support. In Allentown, the Democrats’ margin of advantage fell by 10 points, which coincides with another survey carried out by Msnbc and Telemundo a few weeks ago in English and Spanish: the study found that Kamala Harris’ margin among the Latino vote has been reduced to historic lows in recent years.
Pennsylvania’s Latino belt consists of counties including small and medium-sized cities with a rapidly growing Latino population. These cities are While readingwhich is 70% Latino, as previously stated, Hazeltonwith more than 60% Hispanics, and Allentownwith more than 54%.
Can Trump gain new support in Pennsylvania’s Latino counties that will allow him to win the state? The polls say yes. The Latin bloc will not win. But his gains are enough to unite that bloc of the electorate with middle-class voters in rural counties and win the state by overcoming Democratic margins in cities. It was a strategy that helped him defeat Hillary Clinton in 2016 in the state, known as Keystone (cornerstone) for its importance during the era of the 13 colonies.
Why do Latinos support Trump?
As the chart above shows, with the Telemundo and Msnbc survey data mentioned above, Latinos have begun to abandon the Democratic Party.
In Pennsylvania, what Hispanics are most concerned about is the economyhe unemployment, THE illegal immigration and crime. In the Latino community, the unemployment rate is 5.5%, which is higher than the national average. They also worry about low wages.
Harris is also being held back by voters’ dissatisfaction with Joe Biden’s presidency.. Only 39% approve of Biden’s job in the latest YouGov poll. That figure drops to 32% when asked about Biden’s record on immigration and to 30% when assessing his record on fighting crime.
In each state, between 5 and 7% of the population can vote. If Kamala Harris’ margin narrows by 10 points among Latinos compared to 2020, Trump will easily win Pennsylvania. Also in Arizona, where he is leading in the polls, and could take Nevada from him. In this state, Kamala Harris is ahead. In contrast, internal Democratic Party polls show that Trump can win. The Hispanic vote will also be decisive in Georgia and North Carolina.
