“Eurasian Security Architecture”, under this Orwellian name, Russia intends, with the help of China, to establish a kind of counter-power to the West. The concept is vague, as are its alliances: some economic, others military, others simply diplomatic. The friendship between China and Russia will be reflected from this Wednesday in the visit of the Minister of Foreign Affairs Wang Yiwho will be in Moscow until next Friday. On the same day, India’s national security adviser will arrive in the Russian capital, Ajit Doval.
India and China are now Russia’s two main economic and diplomatic allies, as evidenced by the constant summits between the countries: just this summer, they traveled to Moscow to meet Vladimir Putin both the Chinese Prime Minister and his Indian counterpart. In May, it was the Russian President who visited Xi Jinping in China, while in June he was received in North Korea by Kim Jong Un among splendors of all kinds.
To the BRICS economic alliance, which also includes Brazil and South Africa, must be added the increasingly close relations with the aforementioned North Korea, which for two years has been supplying Russia with drones and munitions in its war against Ukraine. Something similar is happening with Iran, a country with which the Kremlin has a certified military alliance. with the recent shipment of more than 200 short and medium range missilessomething that the CIA director, William Burnsdescribed it as a “dramatic escalation.”
But all this is not enough for Putin. He knows that he needs more allies in the geopolitical context and that is why he sent his foreign minister, Sergey Lavrovin Saudi Arabia, to meet the prince Mohammed bin Salman to strengthen ties. Russia appears to want to extend this agreement to the Persian Gulf countries, although, as we will see, this approach has its complications when it comes to forming a common front against the West.
The enemies: Israel, the United States… and ISIS
The main problem with Putin’s dream of Eurasia is that they have no common origins or goals. Beyond the specific convergence of interests, Putin, a former mayor of St. Petersburg and trained as an espionage expert in the German Democratic Republic, He will have to distort the discourse as much as possible to convince his Muslim interlocutors that Russia is not Europe. and that their religious tradition is not that of Orthodox Christianity.
It will also have to explain its centuries-long treatment of its neighbours in the Muslim-majority Caucasian republics, which Russia has always considered second-class citizens, unlike the Slavic majority.
Similarly, it will be difficult to convince Saudi Arabia and the Persian Gulf countries of the benefits of the Ayatollahs’ regime, with which they have been in conflict since the 1979 Revolution, with its ups and downs. Saudi Arabia, the cradle of Sunnism, and Iran, defender of the Shiite version of the Koran, both seek to influence the rest of the Muslim countries and their only common points are perhaps hatred of Israel, suspicion of the United States… and the fight against the Islamic State, which has always affirmed its desire to extend the caliphate to all Muslim countries.
So far, Russia has shared with them the counterterrorism mission – the attack on Crocus City Hall a few months ago shows that the threat is still relevant – and, of course, the ambiguity towards the United States. It is true that Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, Jordan and Egypt are countries that have excellent relations with the Americans, but these relations are based on a common interest: protection against Iran and mediation with IsraelIf Russia could offer the same, Moscow believes, it might be persuaded to switch sides.
Where is Israel in all this?
Here, a new conflict could arise, which has been brewing for almost a year. When Russia invaded Ukraine, Benjamin Netanyahu He kept a low profile and preferred not to support the regime militarily. Volodymyr Zelensky despite pressure from its Western allies. How did Putin reward this strange loyalty? With the most absolute contempt when Israel suffered the savage attack by Hamas on October 7, 2023.
There is little doubt that, over time, Russia did not want to upset Iran and that it considers it a much higher priority ally than the Jewish state. But this is a dangerous calculation: Israel is the only nuclear power in the region and has one of the best intelligence services in the world, which has collaborated on numerous occasions with Russia to stop terrorist threats.
It would be good for Russia to have Israel as a friend and not as an enemy, and the truth is that it misses the hostility with which it has behaved during these eleven months. Are you trying to conquer the Arab world? Everything indicates yes.
Which brings us to the key point: since what matters is the enemy and not the common goal, that is, since this is not a re-edition of the Warsaw Pact, where one commanded and the others obeyed, what concrete threat do they represent? Alliances for the West? The answer depends on how much we care about maintaining our global hegemony, both in Europe and in the United States, a situation that could worsen considerably if Donald Trump comes to power.
Trump, an avowed admirer of Putin, has already publicly declared his intention to “let him do what he wants in Europe” if NATO countries do not contribute financially, which he considers fair. The curious thing is that Trump, in addition to being a Russophile, is an Iranophobe: he himself ordered the assassination of Iranian general Soleimani at the end of his term, something Tehran does not forget.
Taiwan, South Korea, Baltic countries…
In the distance there appear conflicts in which these countries can help each other, not only in their defense, but in their imperialist will. Therefore, North Korea appears to be moving closer every day to attempting to attack South Korea.. Iran, through its militias, continues to harass Israel and a direct confrontation was on the table only a few weeks ago. Russia is facing a war in Ukraine that could be followed by another against the Baltic republics and NATO. Finally, China is considering a forced reunification with Taiwan from 2025.
None of these countries, as the war in Ukraine itself demonstrates, has the ability to overthrow the international order on its own. Any of these actions, in principle and with the unknown Trump in the middle, would receive a response from the United States and NATO…
But if behind every invasion attempt there was not a single country with a single army, but a coalition, things would get complicated. This is where China and Russia are, and perhaps the offensive against Ukraine should be seen as nothing more than a dress rehearsal that went so badly that it shows the need for alternative measures.
If the West continues to ask itself what it wants to be and what limits it wants to draw, its enemies will collapse. Liberal democracy has fewer resources of force and more self-imposition than authoritarianism.. On the other hand, it also has more attractions to offer. Europe and the United States have already let Russia and China take over virtually all of Africa and much of Asia. They cannot risk making the same mistake with the Arab countries. The consequences would be disastrous for everyone.
