Inditex’s profit estimates for the coming years are not only far from the profits that the company itself recorded in previous years, but it is also gaining positions in the Ibex 35 classification and, if these forecasts come true, The textile company will be the first non-bank company to achieve the highest net profit on the Ibex 35 in 2025 and third in the index overall, only behind Santander and BBVA.
In 2022, the textile company has already achieved an unprecedented profit, surpassing the 4,000 million euro mark. A figure that it largely exceeded again the following year, reporting a profit of 5.381 million euros in 2023. These figures, which have already marked milestones in the history of the company, are now so far away. we take into account the estimates of experts, who estimate that Inditex will earn 6.556 million euros in 2025a profit higher than that forecast for Iberdrola, of 5.923 million euros (see graph), so that the Galician textile company would reach third place in the Ibex 35 for net profits, which until now is occupied by the company chaired by Ignacio Galán.
In fact, for the current year, the profits of the Arteixo company are already close to those of Iberdrola, according to consensus estimates from Bloombergwith a profit of 5,968 million euros, against the 6,093 million expected for the electricity company.
In the first half of 2024, Inditex achieved an increase in sales of 7.2% in the first half, to 18,065 million euros, with a very satisfactory development both in stores and online and positive in all formats. Growth, however, slowed after increasing by 13.5% during the same period of the previous year. These results were greeted with optimism by investors and analysts, with an upward revision of the valuation and an action that has once again revalidated historic highs.
“In a consumer discretionary sector where investors are hiding from luxury and exposure to China, the relative safe haven of Inditex is naturally attractive. We struggle to see how this growth rate of multiples and sales will hold up over the next 12 months However, “The better-than-expected consistency in sales led us to revise our medium-term constant exchange rate estimates and we increased it by 5% to 7%,” Deutsche says. Bank in a report.
The company highlighted that this means an EPS (earnings per share) increase of 1% for the year 2025, 2% for the year 2026 and 6% for the year 2027, “but that leaves us with 4% below consensus for the year.” year 2026”, they specified in Deutsche Bank.
Barclays predicts that the second half will be “stronger and more solid”, since it was only during the first six weeks of the third quarter that sales increased by 11%, “despite a difficult macroeconomic context”, warns – She. “The gross margin improvement of 20 basis points in the first half also suggests that Inditex will likely achieve the highest figure of the year (give or take 50 basis points). Although results in China have slowed in recent months, this has been more than offset by strong activity in Europe, including Spain, and greater store productivity,” the company added.
Thus, for the year 2026, the textile company will set another record in terms of Ebit margin (which does not take into account interest or taxes). The expert consensus that monitors the behavior of the Galician is already waiting for a operating margin of 20.3% by 2026, which means matching European heavyweights like LVMH and moving away from the 17% Ebit margin that the Galician company had set as a target not ago so long.
If we look at gross operating profit (Ebitda), which is a financial indicator that measures the profitability of a company, Inditex’s growth is also progressive, and its ebitda is already expected to approach 12 billion in 2026. Iberdrola and Telefónica continue to be leaders in the selective in terms of gross margin, but the gap between Inditex and these two heavyweights is narrowing more each year, according to these estimates. In figures, Iberdrola will obtain an ebitda 36% higher than that of the textile company in 2024, and by 2028 this difference should be reduced to 24%, according to FactSet data.
Three firms see it at 60 euros
Like profits and other ratios, Inditex stock is running its own race, with an annual revaluation of 32%, in which it has reached levels never recorded in several days. The company’s market value already stands at 170 billion euros, a figure never reached by a Spanish company. In fact, Inditex has already won this title by reaching 150 billion capitalization in August, which is now also far away.
With this sharp rise in the stock market, it remains the sixth most valued company within the EuroStoxx 50, the index which brings together the most representative companies in the euro zone. After the declines of recent days that the European stock markets have experienced in general, the Inditex share is not immune to these corrections and its stock price remains practically in line with the average consensus valuation, which is within 51.87 euros. Thus, there are already two analysis firms which see it at 60 euros (Bernstein and DZ Bank) and another which values it at 63 euros, Redburn Atlantic.
