One year after the attacks by Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad, none of the actors involved in the barbarism that reigns today in Palestine and its surroundings is able to claim victory. And the immediate future does not bode well for better times either.
This is, of course, the case for the perpetrators of Israel’s most brutal coup so far this century. Weakened to the extreme, due to the violent punishments to which they are subjected by the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF, for its acronym in English) as part of Operation Iron Swords, their fighters barely manage to make themselves visible in an environment of destruction of human lives and physical infrastructure that has left the Gaza Strip completely destroyed and the West Bank also plunged into chaos. Their hawkish bet did not allow them to get rid of Benjamin Netanyahu, end the Israeli occupation or, at least, deal a severe blow to the IDF. Worse still, their armed resistance to the occupier resulted in extraordinary suffering for the 2.3 million Gazans who were already living in poverty in a Gaza Strip that the UN itself had previously described as unlivable. .
The same can be said of Hezbollah, as its involvement in defending the Palestinian cause – arguing that its attacks on Israel are aimed solely at getting the IDF to stop its operations in Gaza – has achieved no positive results. On the contrary, it led Tel Aviv to finally decide to go beyond recurring cyber assassinations, air and artillery attacks against Lebanese territory, by launching a ground invasion of uncertain scale, which highlights both the ineffectiveness of the Lebanese armed forces in defending their territory and the suffering of a civilian population once again trapped in a dynamic of generalized violence. Along the way, the Shiite militia was decapitated and significantly weakened in its ability to confront the Israeli army which now seems determined to “cleanse” the southern part of the country, at least as far as the Litani River.
Netanyahu and the group of enlightened people who applaud and pressure him to take advantage of the window of opportunity they believe they see before their eyes, with the aim of definitively achieving territorial domination of all of Palestine historical, cannot boast of their achievements either. Not only are they acting against Israel’s interests, damaging its international image, but they are far from being able to completely annihilate one of its enemies. His decision to open so many fronts simultaneously can only be explained by the headlong flight in which Netanyahu is engaged, considering that the best way to protect himself from the action of justice against him is to prolong and widen the conflict with his neighbors, trusting that he will thus be able to regain his image as a strong man and remain in power indefinitely. To this end, it has had no qualms about openly violating international law, believing (rightly) that no one is ready to stop its murderous drift.
Israel’s decision to open so many fronts simultaneously can only be explained by the headlong rush in which Netanyahu is engaged.
The international community is also left in ruins, limited to a parodic litany of discursive laments and condemnations that makes the widespread reluctance to take action (sanctions against Israel) even more visible. The impotence of the UN, the undisguised support of the United States for Tel Aviv (accompanied by the loss of real capacity to dominate its ally), the fragmentation of the European Union and the ineffectiveness of Arab governments come together in a farce that leaves Palestinians powerless. , as we witness the breakdown of the rules-based international order with the application of a double standard that can only bring worse news.
While we wait to see what Israel’s next military action against Iran will be, the idea is gaining weight that Netanyahu and his people are not really responding to anything or anyone, but rather are taking further steps in their plan to create a new regional order. A new order imposed by force which, above all, ensures them total domination of Palestine, making the existence of a Palestinian state radically impossible. Along the same lines, while Hezbollah will do everything possible to impede the Israeli advance, it does not appear to be able to up the ante against an enemy that not only feels extremely superior, but also has Washington’s permission to go as far as it can decide unilaterally (which leads to not ruling out a future occupation of Lebanon).
As for Iran, it has already given ample proof that it does not want escalation either, activating until the last breath all the regional pawns it has created. We can assume that he will try to keep his pulse at a level that allows him to keep face with his partners, but without committing suicide in a head-on confrontation with an Israel that already has the air assets to be able to carry out a campaign. sustained over time against its nuclear installations and oil infrastructure.
Therefore, even if we can assume that the same falsely contrite tone will be maintained by a good part of the Western and Arab governments, everything remains in the hands of what Netanyahu decides. It can limit itself, as it did in April, to responding to Iran in a measured manner, trying to temporarily ease the tension, while continuing its offensive in Gaza, the West Bank and Lebanon, without forgetting the blows against Syria and the Yemeni Ansar. Allah’s militia. But he can also force the pace, believing that he has an exceptional opportunity (at least until the next American elections) to hit hard the Iranian regime and all its pawns. Even if you fail to eliminate them at the root, you can dream of weakening them to such an extent that none of them will be able to oppose you for several years. If something like this happens, rather than moving toward a new order, it appears that the region, with the determined extremist impulse that defines the current Israeli government, is headed toward new chaos.
*Jesús A. Núñez Villaverde is co-director of the Institute for Conflict Studies and Humanitarian Action (IECAH)
