EU heads of state and government will discuss together for the first time how to respond to Donald Trump’s return to the White House in hostile territory. It will be this Thursday at Budapest during an informal summit to be organized by Viktor Orbanwhose country holds the current presidency of the Union and who already declared during the campaign that he would open “several bottles of champagne” if the Republican candidate won. Orbán is now the big winner of the US elections within the EU.
For the rest of European leaders, Trump’s victory is a nightmare scenario that drags the EU into a worst-case scenario. In Brussels, the transition to the second mandate is not yet complete. Ursula von der Leyen at the head of the Commission: his team is still being examined by the European Parliament and will not be voted on until the end of the month. The Franco-German engine has not worked for a long time, with Emmanuel Macron and Olaf Scholz very weakened internally. The President of the Government, Pedro Sánchez, will not participate in the Budapest summit for DANA in Valencia.
The only European leader who now has political capital is Donald Tusk, who also served as President of the European Council between 2014 and 2019. “Harris or Trump? Some people claim that the future of Europe depends on the American elections, when in reality it depends first and foremost on us. Provided that Europe matures” and believe in your own strength. Whatever the outcome, the era of geopolitical outsourcing is over“, he wrote on the social network X just before the elections.
Contrary to Tusk’s words, the truth is that Europeans fear that the return of Donald Trump in the White House would result in the near-term collapse of Ukraine and a weakening of NATO that would open the way to further attacks from the Kremlin. “It would be a catastrophic mistake for the United States to withdraw from NATO,” he added. but it’s a real possibility in a second Trump administration. “It would be a terrible blow to American and Western interests in general around the world,” he recently wrote. John Boltonwho was national security advisor to the election winner during his first term.
In the weeks leading up to the elections, the EU and the Atlantic Alliance stepped up efforts to protect aid to Ukraine from Trump. The most visible result is the loan of 50 billion of dollars orchestrated by the G7, which must be paid with the profits generated by the assets of the Central Bank of Russia frozen in Europe. NATO also intends to take on the tasks of coordinating military assistance to kyiv that Washington has accomplished so far.
The Republican candidate repeated during the campaign that he would end the war in Ukraine “in 24 hours”, without giving too many details. Its most active ally within the EU, the Hungarian Prime Minister, Viktor Orbanexplained that its strategy consists of “will not give a cent” to Ukraine. “So the war will end, because it is obvious that Ukraine cannot take care of itself.“, Orbán said after his meeting with Trump in March at Mar-a-Lago. Pending what happens in Tuesday’s elections, Budapest is blocking, alone in the EU, a fund of 6.6 billion in aid military in kyiv.
“We cannot expect the United States to protect us. Europe must take its destiny into its own hands“. This is the call that the then chancellor made in 2018, Angela Merkelwhile Brussels had already experienced the chaos of Trump’s first term. Since then, The EU has significantly increased its defense spendingespecially since the start of the war, but it is still far from achieving strategic autonomy or even being able to support Ukraine alone.
“Can Europe fill the void left by the United States? Of course, Europe cannot replace the United States“admitted the head of community diplomacy, Josep Borrell, when the North American Congress blocked a $60,000 aid program for kyiv, precisely at the request of Trump supporters.
In trade matters, the Republican candidate continues to consider Europeans as “enemies”. “The EU treats us so badly,” he said in a recent interview. His plan is to impose tariff surcharges of up to 20% on all imported products (including community fees), which will amount to 100% in the case of cars. “Whoever wins, if trade fragmentation worsens, the effect on global GDP will be negative, with losses that could reach 9% in a serious scenario of full decoupling,” warns the president of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Unlike what happened in 2016, this time the Commission Ursula von der Leyen has prepared a complete arsenal to respond to any decision by Trump in trade matters “from the first minute”, as European sources confirm to EL ESPAÑOL-Invertia. A list of small agreements that Brussels will offer the Republican candidate, but also a list of American products to hit where it will do the most damage if the Republican candidate does not listen to reason and continues with his customs tariffs. It’s about preparing for the best and the worst.
However, the biggest risk posed by Trump’s return to the White House is deepening internal divisions within the EU. In 2020, European leaders managed to speak with one voice to recognize Biden’s victoryat the same time as the Republican candidate questioned the election results. The only one to distance himself was the Slovenian populist Janez Jansawho tweeted that it was “pretty clear” that Trump had won even before the official results were announced.
This time, the divides are much more visible even before the elections open, due to Orbán’s stellar role. The big unknown is the reaction of the Italian Prime Minister. Giorgia Meloniwho has so far aligned himself with the official EU position on fundamental issues like Ukraine, but at the same time maintains close ties with the Trump galaxy, as evidenced by his recent meeting with Elon Musk.
In the countryside, Meloni he avoided expressly supporting the Republican candidate. His official line was that relations between Italy and the United States are very strong and that his government will continue to work with the administration in Washington, whoever the new president is. He thus distances himself from his government partner, Matteo Salviniwhich I publicly bet on Trump. However, Meloni’s team has said privately that it aspires to become a “privileged interlocutor” and a “bridge” between the EU and in the event of the Republican candidate’s victory.
All these internal tensions will be staged in the informal summit of heads of state and government of the EU which takes place this Friday in Budapest. This is the first opportunity for European leaders to collectively respond to the US election result. A meeting whose host is precisely Orbán – since Hungary holds the current presidency – and during which, depending on the results, the conflict could openly break out.
