While it is by no means a surprise, President Trump’s victory in the recent US election sparked a media storm that made it rain. Many of us are speculating on the implications of the Republican leader’s second term in the complex geostrategic scenario in which we live. Some even wonder if the Atlantic Alliance, strengthened after the invasion of Ukraine, has a future with Trump at its head. It cannot be denied that in the short term, the new tenant of the White House arouses uncertainty. What does Trump want? We will soon know what is behind his promises. He assures that he does not come to start wars, but to stop them. Those hoping for a miracle might perhaps be disappointed by the expression with which, in the final days of his previous term, he justified his order to assassinate General Soleimani, commander of the Iranian Quds Force: “We acted yesterday evening to stop a war. , so as not to start it. If, instead of focusing on the wars in Gaza and Ukraine, complex scenarios that will not be resolved by eliminating a few generals, we want to make longer-term forecasts, it would be useful to ask ourselves whether the victory of the Republican is the cause or effect of a change in the political vision of the American electorate. The right question would no longer be what Trump wants, but what the American people want. Almost all analysts attribute Trump’s victory to economic progress, rejection of immigration or the excesses of the Democratic Party, which lost many more votes than the Republican gained. However, among the slogans of the winner’s campaign, two stand out – “Make America Great Again” and, above all, “America First” – which suggest that the tycoon wanted to reach the White House by riding one of those waves of isolationism that periodically shake up North American society. I don’t want to sound doom and gloom – nuclear weapons are a powerful argument for peace – but the previous two ended in world wars. What impact will this have on a NATO to which the invasion of Ukraine has restored the importance lost since the fall of NATO? Warsaw Pact? Over the next four years, the organization will face the challenge of dealing with a confirmed Trump, which will require a healthy dose of patience and pragmatism. However, in the long term, the real challenge for the Atlantic Alliance will be to re-attract the North American peoples. No matter how much we think we would do better, they will be the ones to choose their next presidents. The starting situation is not as bad as it seems. Polls published this year by various media outlets show broad bipartisan support for the Alliance: two-thirds of Americans favor maintaining or strengthening commitment to NATO, and only 12% would favor states withdrawing. -United. However, sentiment among Republican voters is growing. that Washington happily wastes its tax money to defend Europe. A feeling that the Kremlin’s disinformation campaigns are trying to exacerbate to weaken the Alliance. Curiously, the European far right is being told the opposite: Ukraine is bleeding and Europe is poor for defending the imperialist interests of the United States. Those in Moscow who design these campaigns may be inconsistent, but they are not stupid. They know where to put their finger. Trump, who has shown himself attentive to popular causes, has often complained about the lack of commitment of certain European countries to collective defense. The best gauge of this commitment is the defense budget, and it is reassuring to know that in his new term Trump will find a NATO that has done much of its work. Even Spain, still lagging behind, has significantly improved its figures. But it’s not just a question of money, it’s a question of political commitment. If we want the United States to get involved in the defense of Europe, we will have to give them something in return. The new Strategic Concept of the Alliance approved in Madrid, in which the geographical orientation defined in the Washington Treaty is replaced by a geographical orientation. The 360-degree approach, which points to a global rivalry with China, is undoubtedly a step in the right direction… provided it does not remain a dead letter. Because when a government like that of Spain decides not to lend a hand in the defense of a just cause – such as the protection of merchant ships in the Red Sea – to please the left of its electorate, how could we complain if Trump makes concessions? its most isolationist right and withdraw its support for the invaded Ukraine?
