One of the big winners of Trump’s first trade war against China (and the resulting tensions since) was Vietnam. Until then, the Asian giant was undoubtedly the world’s largest factory. However, since then, companies consider it increasingly dangerous for their entire supply chain to depend on this country. a feeling that accelerated with the war in Russia and Ukrainewhich demonstrated the dangers that being caught in the heat of a sanctions conflict with the West could pose for all these companies. This is why, little by little, Vietnam has established itself as one of the most powerful countries in the world in terms of exports. A status which could be undermined by the rise of Donald Trump.
The Asian country is (excluding microstates like Singapore or Malta) the country with certain highest exports relative to GDP in the world with 95%only behind Ireland (134%). This happened with a victorious awakening since in 2014 it was barely 68%. If in 2014 it exported 142 billion dollars of goods and services, it will now do so at 384,000 in 2023. According to the latest data published by its Ministry of Commerce, this is mainly due to the United States, which with almost 109 460 million, the North American powerhouse accounted for almost 30% of all foreign sales.
Until the 1990s, trade between the two countries was completely interrupted, as the wounds of the long and bloody war of the 1960s were still very present. However, since then, trade has been “in crescendo” and this latest wave of tensions has been decisive, becoming an excellent alternative to China for companies around the world. Among the American companies that changed Beijing for Hanoi, they stand out Boeing, Space X, Pfizer, Amazon, Nike, up to 11 clusters Apple…and other European companies like Inditex, Adidas or H&M They have also traveled this path.
In addition to geopolitical sensations, Vietnamese attractiveness also comes from lower salaries which mean that “made in China” has lost the competitive advantage it previously held. Salary in Vietnam averages around 427 euros per month, while in China It’s already around 1,070 euros after developing a larger middle class. Although in 2021 it only increased by 2.55%, still burdened by the pandemic, since then it has not looked back and in 2022 it increased by 8%, to do the same by 5.05% in 2023. Now the third quarter of 2025 has increased. officially 7.4% and government estimates indicate 7% for the whole year.
Vietnam’s success in danger
Now that whole good streak is in danger. According to ING analysts, this country could be one of the most affected, with a trade surplus with the United States of $122 billion, or 5.8% of its GDP would be directly impacted in case rates start to increase. Although Trump has not spoken of any exceptional taxes on Vietnam, the reality is that the New York tycoon has promised a general rate of between 10 and 20% to act as a “ring of protection”.
However, the country meets all the conditions that Trump set during his election campaign. “This could easily become free from such protectionist measures and become collateral damage,” Leif Schneider, director of international law firm Luther, told Reuters.
Vietnamese Communist Party leader To Lam congratulated Donald Trump on his victory in the US presidential elections, but has already warned that the arrival of the Republican candidate would mean some change. During a first telephone call, Lam confirmed that the two had discussed the economic ties that will exist between the two countries in this new stage.
“Trump’s victory will undoubtedly cast a shadow over Vietnam’s export-led growth”
Fitch is clear on the impact: “Trump’s victory will undoubtedly overshadow Vietnam’s growth trajectory, which has been driven by exports, particularly if tariffs increase. » Faced with the situation, the agency believes that the Asian country “will try to maintain the delicate balance of links between the United States and mainland China, in part to preserve the current growth model supported by exports and FDI from the two superpowers.
And it’s not just the impact on GDP, but some experts believe that the tariff measures and especially the strength they will bring to the dollar, will lead to high inflation in the country. According to Heng Koon How, Director of Market Strategy, Market Research and Global Economy at UOB Bank (Singapore), Trump’s policies will “generate this price increase.” Currently, the country has managed to keep prices below 3%, after being above 4% most of the year. However, its currency (the dong) fell 2% in a few days after learning of Trump’s rise.
The currency is one of the authorities’ major concerns regarding the country. “Indicators show that Vietnam’s short-term financing risk is sensitive, reflecting the decline in foreign exchange reserves and import coverage, as well as strong credit growth,” comment Allianz experts. In this sense, the German bank explains that “the country must guarantee stability with the dollar.” In this sense, “if external demand conditions deteriorate and foreign exchange reserves continue to decline, the central bank may not be able to defend its currency.”
On the BNP side, it is emphasized that the currency has for some time constituted one of the greatest risks for the country. “A real leak has occurred of capital in 2022 and, even if in 2023 there was less pressure thanks to the current account surplus (with the United States), liquidity problems remain.
“The US Department of Commerce already announced in October a 2.85% tariff on solar cells imported from Vietnam and a 300% tax on Chinese brands exporting companies associated with this country”
From the World Bank they explain that to maintain its significant growth, the country needsmaintain exports, but Furthermore, “the authorities should deepen structural reforms, increase public investment and, at the same time, carefully manage emerging financial risks.”
However, Fitch says Trump’s rise will bring one opportunity: tariffs on China. As happened in 2017, if Vietnam manages to keep its doors open to the United States and Trump complies with the 60% tariffs on its neighbor, “Vietnam could become an alternative exporter of certain products, such as textiles, but would also face the risk that China diverts its exports of certain products, such as steel, to Vietnam, thus worsening its trade deficit with China.
However, the offensive against China could bring more problems than benefits. Partly because Vietnam is full of Chinese companies that could be targeted by the United States. “The United States Department of Commerce already announced in October a customs duty of 2.85% on solar cells imported from Vietnam and a 300% tax on Chinese brands which export from companies associated with this country”, comment Fitch experts. In this sense, the proximity of this great rival could strengthen Hanoi, but also place it in the target (in certain cases) of several of the most severe sanctions. more aggressive measures already in force raised by the next government.
