Former President Donald Trump is gaining ground in three key Sun Belt states, according to a survey released Monday by The New York Times and Siena College. Trump is distancing himself from Kamala Harris in Arizona and threatening to do the same in Georgia and North Carolina, two competitive states. The survey, conducted between September 17 and 21, shows an improvement in the Republican campaign trend after the sprint What represented Democratic euphoria in August and threatens an even tighter conflict in the final stretch of the elections.
Arizona is the state with the most significant change. The Republican has managed to reverse the situation and is ahead of Harris by five percentage points (50%, compared to 45% for the Democratic candidate). Just a month ago, another survey conducted by the American newspaper showed that Harris was five points ahead of the Republican.
In 2020, Joe Biden managed to turn the state blue with 49.4% of the vote and a margin of about 10,000 votes over Trump. It was not a comfortable victory, but now it seems Harris has an even tougher time than her predecessor.
In the other two states where Trump is competitive, Georgia and North Carolina, the margin narrows a bit more: in Georgia, he leads by 49% to 45%, and in North Carolina he gets 49%, compared to 47% for Kamala Harris. In 2020, Biden managed to win in Georgia by about 11,000 votes, a narrow score of 49.47%, compared to 49.24% for the Republican.
Trump recently lashed out at Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp, who refused to accept the former president’s speech in 2020 and defended the integrity of his state’s election results. One of Trump’s four criminal cases was opened in Georgia, where he is accused of trying to interfere in the state’s 2020 election results. Now, the tycoon is trying to mend fences with Kemp, whose help could be crucial to his victory. a key Republican state.
In North Carolina, even if Trump continues to show signs of advantage, it is a territory that has historically voted Republican, although the possibility of changing color this November 5 has not been ruled out. In 2020, the Republican managed to win here by about 75,000 votes and since Harris entered the electoral race, North Carolina has become a contested state. The days in which the survey was carried out follow the scandal involving Mark Robison, the Republican candidate for governor of that state, who had called himself a “black Nazi” in a pornographic forum. The controversy revealed by the press could also harm Trump as November approaches.
The survey data is also significant because it was collected after the presidential debate and the second assassination attempt on the tycoon. The week after the debate, Harris was leading the average of national polls conducted by the New York Times and in a poll released Tuesday by Monmouth University, the Democrat led with 49 percent.
The Monmouth poll, which began running the day after the debate through Sunday of the same week, suggested that while voting intentions favored Harris, her head-to-head performance had not had a significant impact on the numbers. A survey conducted in August by the same center already showed that 48 percent of registered voters supported Harris nationally, who was already leading at the time.
Although the Siena College survey comes in the wake of Trump’s frustrated assassination in Palm Beach, the shift in sentiment in the three Sun Belt states doesn’t appear to be a direct result of it. Instead, they’re responding more to questions about key issues in this election, like the economy, or support from certain groups. In Arizona, Trump’s comeback is more likely to be tied to the Latino vote. Ten percent of Latino voters who said they supported Harris now say they’re unsure about their vote.
The economy and inflation remain top concerns for voters, and in all three states, 55% of respondents still think Trump is better than Harris. Only 42% think Harris would do better.
The Siena College survey also shows how Republican rhetoric of fear permeates this part of the country. A majority of respondents believe the problems are so great that the United States is in danger of collapsing. Voters who identify as Republicans share this view far more than Democrats, 72% to 16%.
About 15% of voters in Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina still say they don’t know who they’ll vote for. While this group seemed to lean more toward Harris in August, it’s now trending slightly toward Trump. Now, we’re also seeing that for many of these undecided voters, the question of Trump’s character is a growing concern and threatens to become a weakness for the Republican.
A third of undecided voters say they are concerned about the president’s behavior and erratic statements, while 9% doubt his honesty and ethics. Another 7% suggest they might change their voting intentions if they come to view Trump as a potential threat to democracy. These concerns about the former president’s character show how Democrats’ strategy of attacking Trump as a selfish man who only thinks about himself can be far more effective than labeling him an “autocrat.”
In early September, a close friend of the Republican governor of Georgia explained to New York Times how Trump’s focus on himself, not his policies, could end up having a negative impact on him in the state.
On the other hand, the survey shows that 16% of undecided voters have doubts about Harris’ character and 12% about her honesty and ability to keep her promises.
Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina are three decisive states before the elections, but it is possible that Harris wins the White House without them, although it would be a very difficult scenario to achieve. For Trump, Georgia and North Carolina are more lemony. For now, Pennsylvania continues to be considered the place that will have the last word and in this state, Harris continues to lead by a difference of three percentage points.
