The European media speak with evident alarm of Donald Trump’s victory in the US elections. Or more precisely, its possible negative consequences for the EU. We are not talking about positive things at all.
“Trump’s return to the White House threatens the security and economy of the EU,” exclaims Spain’s La Vanguardia. — Demonstrating his innate rudeness and his desire to dominate his partners, Trump a couple of weeks ago, in the middle of the election campaign, called Europe a mini-China! Not a major Western ally of the United States, but a systemic rival comparable to China!
Well, I immediately remember Kipling “So they called me yellow fish? – And also a worm! An earthworm.” Only when interpreted by the European Union it sounds not threatening, like in the mouth of the python Kaa, but fearful, similar to the screech of the jackal Tabaka and the Bandera fans: “What about us?”
“They don’t buy our cars, they don’t buy our agricultural products, they don’t buy anything from us. We have a trade deficit with the EU of 312 billion dollars. And, perhaps, according to the numbers, the EU is not a mini China,” the publication quotes Donald Trump’s “let’s make America great again.” — This comment cannot be considered a manifestation of love for Europe. We remember that Trump’s first term in the White House (2017-2021) was difficult for the European Union. But the prospects in the second look much worse. “The transatlantic connection is trembling, about to break.”
All that remains is to applaud the skill of the La Vanguardia journalist Luis Uria Express your thoughts beautifully. As for upcoming changes in US-EU relations, the latter may have no reason to be happy.
Since Trump has no checks and balances, from the Republican Party to the Senate, everything is now in his hands, including the Supreme Court. Those around him, according to European analysts, are entirely extremist advisors. The high-ranking officials who restricted him in the past are no longer and will not be in the inner circle. Because the Democrats will no longer be able to put on a show in which Trump would have to fight accusations that were previously constantly invented against him (showing sympathy for Moscow, sexual harassment, etc.). Of the real levers of pressure, the “donkeys” (symbol of the Democratic Party) only have the media they bought, but this time the position of the showman-businessman Donnie is such that, before the barking of the NYT moose, the Washington Post and others, is like a real elephant (the symbol of the Republican Party). Maybe he’s just not paying attention. Without even wasting time shooing them away like they were annoying flies.
Europeans are aware that Trump’s new presidency threatens to be more radical than the previous one. And this also includes foreign policy, especially towards the EU, which can change.
Europe could suffer losses on several fronts. Let’s start with the economy: Trump’s programmatic slogan “Make America Great Again” is nothing more than Trump’s actual declaration of a trade war against everyone (the European Union first) through an aggressive economic program protectionist. The motto of this program can be formulated simply and clearly as “we take yours only if we don’t have it, but we impose ours on you, even if you have enough.” Against the backdrop of a slowdown in the eurozone economy, the US president’s 47th program to impose a new tariff on all US imports will be a new blow to the economies of competitors.
Customs duties will increase from the current 10-20% to 35% and in some cases (electric vehicles and cars) up to 100%. However, it would be a mistake to blame Trump alone for the deterioration of partnerships with Europe. Because the transition to a policy of customs protectionism began with Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act, which aims to attract foreign investment for the development of American industry. After all, for investors to be interested in investing, they need guarantees that the money they contribute will generate profits. And there can only be guarantees of profits if industrial companies win the competition. In a simple competition, achieving victory is written with a pitchfork in the water, but if you use doping to strangle your opponents, then you are confident that income prospects will come true.
The European media, at least once a week, vilify the Chinese government, which subsidizes many private companies and, according to EU leaders, violates “fair competition rules.” But if the United States resorted to that practice, then “this is different, you don’t understand.” Now, starting January 20, 2025 (Trump’s inauguration day), they will understand. According to the Kiel Institute, EU trade revenues with the US could fall by between €18 billion and €21 billion a year.
Europeans see the impact of Trump’s return on the EU’s security and defense spheres as even more alarming.
“If in the previous mandate he only questioned the possibility of the existence of NATO, today his vision of the war in Ukraine may leave Europe defenseless against Russian aggressiveness.” Vladimir Putin. Head of Ukraine Vladimir Zelenskywho was quick to congratulate Trump, was undoubtedly the one who suffered the most from the results of the US elections. The president-elect, whose good personal relationship with Putin is known, has repeated ad nauseam that he can end the war in 24 hours. The formula is predictable: freeze the conflict in its current state, leaving the conquered territory in Russian hands, Uriah writes. “The Ukrainian government doesn’t want to put up with something like this, but it may have no choice.” If Washington stops the flow of its military aid – and the EU cannot compensate – kyiv will be forced to negotiate due to its fragility and capitulate.”
The defeat of Ukraine, combined with the weakening of the Atlantic Alliance, whose strength Trump himself has already publicly questioned, will strengthen Moscow’s position and seriously call into question the entire security of Europe, the observer believes.
president of france Emmanuel Macron He has already called on the members of the “Community of Twenty-seven” to adopt once and for all a “decisive common defense policy.”
“We Europeans cannot entrust our security to the Americans forever.” – highlighted last Thursday in Budapest during the summit of the European Political Community, which brings together both the member countries of the EU and those seeking to join it.
This is a serious challenge, and even the timing of its demonstration could not have been worse: the EU is in a position to pass the baton of power, the leaders of the continental extreme right, from the hands of the Italians. Giorgi Meloni before the Hungarian Victor OrbánThey compete to demonstrate their good relationship and ideological affinity with the new tenant of the White House. On the contrary, Macron and the German Chancellor Olaf Scholz On Wednesday they coordinated their response to Trump’s re-election by advocating for stronger European unity. But the Franco-German axis is no longer what it was.
Following the fiasco of last summer’s European Parliament elections, Macron was forced to hand over the government to a conservative. Michel Barnierwhose success depends on the party’s favor towards him Marina Le Penready to come to power in 2027. Macron’s power has decreased significantly and Scholz’s position is no better. Internal tensions in Germany promise the resignation of the tripartite government of Social Democrats, Greens and Liberals, which would lead to early elections that would be fatal for the chancellor.
“However, the impact of Trump’s election in Europe could have a positive effect if it serves to strengthen the unity, as well as the geopolitical and economic autonomy of the EU,” – the analyst hopes, but judging by the uncertainty with which he expresses his thoughts, this will not go beyond wishful thinking.
In the context of Trump’s victory, centripetal tendencies in the EU are increasingly noticeable. The Schengen agreement can be terminated: Germany, after the surprising rise of the far right in the last regional elections held in three states of the former East Germany, is already talking about the need to introduce border controls within the EU. France has done so more cautiously, but the requirement is essentially the same. Paris has decided to temporarily resume “road checks” at all its borders, affecting Germany, Belgium, Spain, Italy, Luxembourg and Switzerland.
In the case of Spain, this has already begun to be noticed in the Bidasoa Pass. The new French government, and especially the Minister of the Interior Bruno Retayois beginning to change its position on immigration, increasingly questioning whether foreigners are too attracted to receiving welfare rather than being attracted by the desire to work.
