The historian and expert on American politics, Allan Lichtmannicknamed the “Nostradamus” of the American elections, clearly knows who will win these elections. Lichtman, who has guessed virtually every U.S. election since 1984, has a curious method for predicting which candidate will be able to take control of the White House.
This system, called The keys to the White Housewas designed in 1981 by the aforementioned historian in collaboration with Russian mathematician Vladimir Keilis-Borok and features 13 keys that any leader must fulfill to ascend to the presidency of the United States. Whoever gets a higher number will be the winner of the elections.
Thus, according to this method, Lichtman predicted that the Democratic Party candidate, Kamala Harriswill be the winner of these American elections and Donald Trump will lose again for the second time in a row.
The points to be fulfilled to access the leadership of the most powerful Executive in the world are as follows:
1. Party mandate. After the midterm elections, the ruling party has more seats in the US House of Representatives.
2. No competition in primaries. There is no serious competition for the ruling party’s nomination.
3. The ruling party seeks re-election. The candidate of the ruling party is the incumbent president.
4. Third parties. There are no significant third parties
or independent campaigns.
5. Short-term economics. The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
6. Long-term economy. Real economic growth per capita during the period is equal to or greater than the average growth of the previous two periods.
7. Policy change. The current administration is producing significant changes in national policy.
8. Social unrest. There was no sustained social unrest during the term.
9. Scandals. The current administration is not tainted by a major scandal.
10. External failure. The current administration does not suffer any major failure in foreign policy or
military affairs.
11. External success. The current administration succeeds in foreign or military affairs.
12. Charisma of the leader. The ruling party’s candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
13. Uncharismatic candidate: The party candidate is neither charismatic nor a national hero.
