The triumph of Donald Trump During the presidential elections of this Tuesday, November 5, he relied on the improvement of his results throughout the country and especially on the “reconquest” of the Swing States either hinge states in which the outgoing president prevailed, Joe Biden, in 2020.
The Republican tycoon repeated his 2016 feat in break the “Blue Wall” Democrats are storming Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, three key “rust belt” states (rust beltin English) and reconquer the state of Georgia, in the south of the country, where he lost four years ago by less than 12,000 votes.
Failing to know the result of the recount in Arizona and Nevada, two key states in which Trump leads his Democratic opponent by five and four percentage points respectively, Kamala HarrisThe results from Georgia, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania offer a clear picture of the causes of the Republican leader’s triumph.
Rural vote strengthens Trump in Georgia
Georgia, a traditionally conservative southern state, was at the center of controversy during the 2020 presidential elections. During the recount, Donald Trump, then president and candidate for re-election, asked Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger : “find” the votes that would ensure victory in the state. That’s why Trump faces eight counts in a trial for alleged election interference in Georgia.
The mobilization of the African-American community, which represents 31% of the Georgian population, and progressive voters in the suburbs of its capital, Atlantagave Biden victory in 2020, becoming the first Democrat to win in the election. State of fishing since Bill Clinton in 1992. This Tuesday, Georgia once again turned towards the Republicans, since Trump won with 50.7% of the votes – 1.5 points more than in 2020 -, against 48, 5% for Harris.
Democrats won comfortably in the city of Atlanta and most counties in its metro area, and in some cases even improved on Biden’s 2020 results. For example, Harris won by 30 points in Henry County , southeast of Atlanta, thus increasing its advantage. by 9.2 points compared to the previous elections. The Democratic vice president also won in every city with more than 100,000 residents in the state: Augusta, Columbus, Savannah, Macon and Athens.
Republicans offset Democratic advances in suburban Atlanta with strong growth elsewhere, beating their 2020 results in 85% of counties to capture Georgia’s 16 electoral votes. . Actually, Trump managed to beat Harris in three counties where Biden won four years earlier, including Baldwin, with a population that was 40% African-American.
Trump attacks Pennsylvania again
Pennsylvania’s 19 electoral votes made this Midwestern state the most valuable in the presidential contest. A Democratic stronghold from the 1990s until the emergence of Trump in 2016, Biden won back the state for progressives by winning the 2020 presidential election by a margin of 1.2 points.
Pennsylvania is the state in which presidential tandems participated the most in events during the electoral campaign, according to The New York Timesand has symbolic value for Democrats: it is the home state of President Biden and his governor, Josh Saphirohad been proposed as Kamala Harris’s running mate, a position that ended up being held by Minnesota Governor Tim Walz.
Ultimately, Pennsylvania ended up being the decisive territory for the Republican victory, since the confirmation of Donald Trump’s victory in this state, with 50.5% of the votes, added to his victories in North Carolina and Georgia, ended Harris’ presidential aspirationswhich remains at 48.6% of the votes.
The Democratic candidate beat Trump in the state’s two most populous cities, Philadelphia And PittsburghDemocratic strongholds with a strong base of African American, Latino and college voters. Despite this, he did it to lower margins than Biden in 2020 facing the general advance of his Republican opponent, winner in five of the 13 counties in which the current president won four years ago.
Among the territories that have turned to the Republicans is the county of deerwhich has the highest proportion of non-college white population in the state. Likewise, he narrowed the Democratic advantage to three points in Lackawanna County, home to Scranton, Biden’s hometown with a high percentage of white, working-class voters.
Republican surprise in Michigan and Wisconsin
Michigan and Wisconsin were, according to pre-election polls, the The swing states most favorable to Kamala Harris. The portal FiveThirtyEight gave the Democratic candidate’s victory in these states at 61 and 59% probability respectively in its last projection before the election.
Ultimately, both “rust belt” states ended up falling to the Republican side. asset He won with 49.8% of the vote in Michigan, against 48.3% for his Democratic challenger, and with 49.7% of the vote in Wisconsin, against 48.8% for Harris.
Inside Wayne CountyMichigan’s most populous county and which includes part of its most populous city, Detroit, Harris won against Trump by a margin of 29 points, 9.2 points less than in 2020. This county is the territory with highest percentage of Arab-Americans of the country, representing 8% of its population. This population group, traditionally democratic, distanced itself from this party because of its position in the Gaza war.
The Democratic setback extended to the rest of the metro area of strait and the state, except northwest Michigan. In Leelanau County, the Democratic vote increased by 7.6 points from 2020.
In Wisconsin, Democrats won resounding victories in the most populous city, Milwaukeewith a high percentage of African-American population, and in its capital, madisonwhere the University of Wisconsin is located and therefore a relevant niche of young and progressive voters. In these urban centers, the Democratic vote fell by only one point compared to 2020.
The suburb of Milwaukee, known as WOW Counties (Waukesha, Ozaukee and Washington), traditionally Republican and which in 2020 showed a slight tilt toward Democrats, continued this trend and allowed Harris to improve on Biden’s previous data. In the rest of the state, which is eminently rural, the vote for Trump was boosted, allowing him to regain power. Sauk Countyone of two Wisconsin territories that supported the Republican in 2016 and Biden in 2020.
Biden’s unpopularity, an insurmountable obstacle
With his electoral victory, Trump becomes the second president of the United States to win an election again after losinga step that only Democrat Grover Cleveland took in 1892. As exit polls show, the concern of voters in key states about the economic situation and the effects of inflation boosted the Republicans and allowed for Trump to reconnect with voters in the suburbs and rural areas.
This joined the rise in the Republican vote among Latinosthe disaffection of Democratic voters and the unpopularity of Joe Biden, who, according to the portal FiveThirtyEight56.3% of Americans disapprove, while 38.5% approve. This places the Democratic president as the most unpopular president at this point in his term since there are records, equal to that of George HW Bush, who lost his re-election to Bill Clinton in 1992 when he had a percentage of identical disapproval.
