Donald Trump’s chances of winning the 2024 US presidential election have declined sharply, according to cryptocurrency forecasting platform Polymarket.
Forbes writes about this.
In October, predictions of his victory reached an impressive 67%, but recent events have caused a significant change in the situation. As investor concerns about the Federal Reserve’s policies grew, Trump’s chances of winning dropped to 50% and his main rival, Democratic candidate Kamala Harris, was neck and neck with him in terms of success.
Polymarket, although not available to US users, allows people around the world to place bets on a variety of events, including elections. The platform is not an opinion survey, but rather an open prediction market where participants express their expectations through bets. Over the weekend, Trump’s support for Polymarket fell to 54%, while Harris’ odds rose from 33% to 45%.
On rival forecasting platform Kalshi, which is available to American users, the gap between Trump and Harris has also narrowed. According to Kalshi, Trump’s chances of winning have dropped to 52%, while Harris’s chances have increased to 48%. A week earlier, Trump’s chances were 65%, compared to 35% for his opponent.
Since the beginning of the year, Polymarket users have bet more than $3 billion on the election outcome. Most of the platform’s participants are young men interested in cryptocurrencies. One such user from France made a significant investment, betting $30 million on Trump’s victory. In an interview with the Wall Street Journal he explained that his objective is not to try to influence the electoral results, but purely to obtain economic benefits.
Interest in forecasting platforms has increased significantly this year. In the summer, news about betting that current President Joe Biden would drop out of the presidential race caught the attention of users, which happened a few weeks later and confirmed the predictions of the participants.
Previously, Kursor wrote that Iran fears Trump’s return to power.
Iran is concerned that Trump will allow Israel to attack nuclear facilities.
