Among Democratic senators, it is difficult to find anyone with more progressive positions than Sherrod Brown. The Ohio senator since 2007 has been particularly critical throughout his career of his party’s tendency to distance itself from the American working class in the Midwest, which has lived in a permanent sense of crisis since the beginning of the decline of traditional industry in the Midwest. eighties. He always enjoyed the support of his state’s unions and participated in picket lines during calls for some strikes. Brown, 71, but looking younger, is the closest thing to a left-wing politician you will find in the United States.
In Tuesday’s election, Brown was defeated by Republican candidate Bernie Moreno. This has been a controversial contest. Moreno received 50.2% of the vote to Brown’s 46.4%, with a difference of just over 200,000 votes. Moreno, born in Colombia, entered politics three years ago after making big money as the owner of luxury car dealerships. Rejects the right to abortion and supports the construction of a wall on the border with Mexico. Years ago, he called Donald Trump “crazy,” but he now considers himself a 100% Trumpist politician.
Ohio is a state that has moved over the past twenty years toward clearly conservative positions. Despite this, Democrats hoped that Brown could hold out in this election, which was not possible. The end of his political career serves as an example to understand the outcome of the elections won by Trump.
It doesn’t matter that the important figures for the North American economy have been positive since the end of the pandemic. The impact of inflation on household economies would punish the ruling party, although few thought it would go to the extremes that occurred in the election.
Kamala Harris has focused her campaign on warning of the dangers Trump poses to the future of democracy. The majority of voters considered their economic situation to be more important in deciding their vote, as is the case in almost all countries. You cannot call them selfish. It’s just that the Constitution doesn’t feed you every day.
Senator Bernie Sanders, re-elected in Vermont with 63% of the vote, had harsh words about Harris’ campaign strategy. “It should really come as no surprise that the Democratic Party, which has abandoned the working class, finds that the working class has abandoned it.”
In one of the latest New York Times polls, voter pessimism was evident, as was reflected in many other polls. Only 28% of respondents believe that the country is moving in the right direction and only 40% approve of Joe Biden’s management. With these numbers, any party, in any country, is doomed to defeat. This unease was widespread across the population regardless of age, education and gender, and was only less intense among those over 65 and the black population.
When asked which candidate he most trusted to lead the economy, Trump had a seven-point lead over Harris. In other surveys this difference was greater. 51% think the economy needs significant changes. Only 3% believe no change is necessary.
Exit polls on Election Day pointed to an obvious culprit: inflation. 67% said the economic situation was bad or very bad, according to the NBC poll. The family economy was worse for 45%, the same for 30% and better for 24%. Only 24% said inflation had not caused serious problems. As is the case in all countries, the impact of prices was more intense on low and middle incomes, since it was very evident on food and housing, two of those inevitable expenses.
Kamala Harris lost three points among those with annual incomes below $30,000 compared to Biden’s 2020 results. She lost five points with voters between $30,000 and $50,000. The loss of support was greater, by eight points, in households with incomes between $50,000 and $100,000. As in Spain, the participation rate at the polls increases according to income.
In 2023, the median salary in the United States was $48,060 per year, although there are large differences between states (in Texas it was $45,970, in California it was $54,030).
Faced with this reality, the message centered on the very good macroeconomic data in the United States was doomed to failure. And it’s not that these numbers are wrong. The country’s per capita GDP reached $65,548 in 2019. In 2023, it increased to $81,695. In October this year, unemployment reached 4.1% of the working population, including 3.4% among those over 24. The Wall Street Stock Exchange has made a series of record increases.
This level of full employment cannot hide the fact that wages have not increased in the service sector at the same level as inflation. In many North American states, the Latino population is very present among military personnel, which helps to understand why Trump enjoyed greater support among them than any other Republican candidate previously obtained.
When prices began to fall, a significant part of the population did not see the good news anywhere. On a macroeconomic level, this was undoubtedly a positive fact, but families did not see it that way. After all, prices had not fallen, but had stopped rising so quickly. Since the end of 2023, the increase in wages has been higher than that in prices, but not enough to compensate for the previous loss of purchasing power.
The price increase has not been uniform. Cheaper products saw larger price increases than more expensive products, according to a study cited by the Financial Times. Concerning employment, the fear of losing one’s job has increased throughout this year among workers whose income is less than $50,000. Delinquencies on amounts that must be paid for credit card payment have also been higher in lower-income households.
The price rise started with Biden in the White House. This would have happened under any other president. Voters remembered that inflation had been low during Trump’s first term. The Republicans took it upon themselves to blame the immense public spending program promoted by Biden so that the population could withstand the impact of the pandemic, much higher than that achieved in European countries.
Inflation is a delegitimizing weapon of governments. Its capacity to prevent price increases is not great, but what is certain is that the parties in power will suffer the political consequences.
The phenomenon also occurred in Europe. For this reason and many others, the Conservatives were wiped out in the British election. In France and Germany, the governments have a low level of popularity. The Social Democrats are heading towards certain defeat in the 2025 German elections.
No one came out unscathed. Economic pessimism has the brutal capacity to kill governments.
