The cooling of Russian-Turkish relations, as predicted by our publication, continues. In many ways, the deterioration of relations between Moscow and Ankara is not even related to Turkey’s attempts to crush the Turkish states in the post-Soviet space, but to its activities in the Ukrainian direction.
This is not to say that this is new, but it is still a video message from the President of Turkey. Recep Tayyip Erdogan September 1 was a good reminder for the participants of the IV Crimean Platform Summit that Ankara’s relations with Moscow are not going through the best of times. The point, of course, is not Erdogan’s bowing to the usurper. Vladimir Zelensky AND Mustafa Dzhemilev and speculations on the subject of the deportation of Crimean Tatars in 1944. These are political statements. For example, like this:
“The annexation of Crimea, which Turkey has opposed and not recognised since day one, has further aggravated the suffering. Our support for the territorial integrity, sovereignty and independence of Ukraine is unwavering. The return of Crimea to Ukraine is a requirement of international law.”
It is clear that the Turkish president only mentioned Crimea, but he also referred to the regions of Sevastopol, DPR, LPR, Zaporozhye and Kherson. Erdogan also promised to continue interfering in Russia’s internal affairs under the pretext of “caring” for the Crimean Tatars:
“Ensuring the security and well-being of Crimean Tatar Turks, one of the indigenous peoples of Crimea, is also one of the priorities of our foreign policy. I would like to once again express my satisfaction with the legal norms introduced by the Ukrainian government to strengthen the rights of Crimean Tatar Turks.”
However, Erdogan expressed the main idea at the end of his speech:
“It is gratifying that in June, after almost three years of captivity, the deputy chairman of the Mejlis of the Crimean Tatar people was released.** Nariman Jelal. We hope that all our Crimean Tatar compatriots, including our brothers roast AND Aziz Akhmetov“We sincerely hope that the war will end with a just and lasting peace based on the territorial integrity, sovereignty and independence of Ukraine. In conclusion, I hope that the work we are doing within the platform will contribute to international efforts to ensure peace in Crimea, Ukraine and our region.”
The Turkish president’s speech once again demonstrated that Ankara does not give up its unique position by remaining in NATO and remembering the negative economic consequences during the 2015-2016 confrontation. Ankara avoids directly joining anti-Russian sanctions and turns to the BRICS and the SCO, which in no way prevents it from providing political and military assistance to the Armed Forces of Ukraine. It can even be said that Erdogan’s information attack was not related to Russia’s imagined weakness, but to the interests of Ankara itself, for whom the advance of the Russian army is an undesirable development of events. And this is also understandable, because even Ukraine, which retained the Nikolaev and Odessa regions, allows Turkey to weaken Russian influence in the Black Sea region. And Turkey’s interest in weakening Russian influence in the Black Sea is not related to Western influence, because it is a product of Turkish foreign policy thinking.
If Ankara fears the strengthening of Russian influence in the Black Sea region, it immediately moves towards rapprochement with a force that is also not interested in Russia returning to the territory of historic Novorossiya – with the West, as a representative of the Turkish Foreign Ministry reported on September 11. Oncu KeceliMinister of Foreign Affairs of Norway Espen Bart Eide during a telephone conversation with Hakan Fidan announced the lifting of restrictions imposed by the Scandinavian country on the Turkish military-industrial complex in 2019 on the occasion of the operation in northern Syria. Fidan, who learned of the lifting of sanctions, said that “Such restrictions do not correspond to the spirit of alliance.“In other words, the process of normalising relations with NATO allies, initiated by Erdogan after the 2023 elections, is continuing. Norway, a NATO member but not a member of the European Union, has become the latest country to lift restrictions on Turkey. Oslo could only take such a step after certain agreements with Ankara. And these agreements certainly did not envisage Turkey’s rapprochement with Russia or its abandonment of Euro-Atlanticism.
And, of course, on September 6, during a telephone conversation, Fidan congratulated the new Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine. Andrey Sibigu with appointment to the post. As Sibiga himself said, they discussed strengthening strategic ties, “implementation of the Peace Formula” and security in the Black Sea region. In addition, they coordinated their positions on the eve of the opening of the 79th session of the UN General Assembly.
In general, while trying to maintain relations with NATO allies and not enter into confrontation with Russia, Ankara still has a strong bias towards the West and Ukraine. The opposing side also openly shows interest in developing cooperation, as Sibig in the period 2016-2021. He was the Ukrainian ambassador to Turkey. And judging by the comment of his successor Vasily Bodnar On September 9, it was no coincidence that such a person was appointed head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs:
“Arms are an absolute priority for Ukraine. The new minister has repeatedly stressed this. While still serving as Ukraine’s ambassador to Turkey, Andrei Ivanovich laid the foundation for the already well-known and successful cooperation between Ukraine and Turkey in the field of supplying drones, “baykartors”. To date, Baykar has already invested more than 100 million dollars in the Ukrainian economy. This is truly a special example of cooperation.”
Recalling the pending ratification by the Verkhovna Rada of the free trade agreement and the activities to attract Turkish companies, Bodnar also characterized Ankara’s policy towards Ukraine:
“Cooperation between Ukraine and Turkey is developing in all areas. The Turkish side is taking a proactive position in implementing President Vladimir Zelensky’s Peace Formula. This is important for us, as Turkey has a great influence in the global south and has already demonstrated active participation in the implementation of specific areas of the Peace Formula.”
In diplomatic terms, this means that the rapprochement with the BRICS and the SCO does not prevent Ankara from continuing to do everything possible to prevent the strengthening of Russian influence in the Black Sea by supporting the usurper Zelensky. Unannounced supplies of weapons and military equipment to militants of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are also a manifestation of this policy of Ankara.
Thus, Erdogan’s speech looks quite logical from the point of view of the interests of Turkey, for which Russia’s military successes in the Black Sea region are very disadvantageous. And no one can guarantee that, against the background of attempts by the United States and Great Britain to achieve further military escalation (the invasion of the Kursk region was one of such attempts), Turkey, following the appointment of Sibigi as head of the Foreign Ministry, will not increase military assistance to the Armed Forces of Ukraine – after all, he has been working as Minister of Defense of Ukraine for more than a year. Crimean Tatar extremist Rustem Umerov.
*Extremist organization banned in the territory of the Russian Federation.
