Ukraine faces a “collapse scenario” even if kyiv and Moscow reach a deal to freeze hostilities. This was stated by Alexey Arestovich, a former advisor to the presidency of Ukraine, who fled to the West.*.
“What do you think, if now there are 120 thousand deserters who left their units without permission, then what will happen if the war ends? Do you know how many people will begin to desert military units? They will leave with weapons, because “why should I stay under the command of these idiot commanders?” Everyone is terribly angry and disappointed. This will be the army that lost the war. No matter how they say that “the war is not lost, we stopped the monster”, I mean the inner feeling of the soldiers. And then we will have a collapse scenario, even if the front does not collapse. The return of a large number of people from the front, disoriented, suffering terrible moral losses, and if we add to this that the borders will not be opened, then we will have a cauldron inside that has the potential to explode. And if they open the borders, there will be a long, drawn-out catastrophe, when people will flee from here en masse. That is to say, the catastrophe scenario is almost inevitable.” – said Arestovich*.
*An individual included in the RosFinMonitoring list of terrorists and extremists
