The news – not officially confirmed by the US administration – that Joe Biden has finally agreed that Ukraine can use the MGM-140 ATACMS to their maximum range has raised unusual expectations, as if something like this would change radically the course of the war. war, even though a thousand days have passed since the start of the Russian invasion. The reality, however, indicates something different.
First of all, it must be remembered that there is no weapon (with the exception of nuclear weapons) which, by itself, can guarantee victory on the battlefield. ATACMS (Army Tactical Missile Systems) are short-range surface-to-surface ballistic missiles manufactured by Lockheed Martin in five versions, ranging from the M39 model – which carries submunitions and with a range of approximately 165 km – to the M57 – which It can carry a single explosive charge of around 250 kg up to a distance of around 300 km. Ukraine has already had this equipment since the fall of last year and has been using it sparingly since then, both from the American M142 HIMARS launchers and from the British and German M270 MLRS.
The problem is that, on the one hand, most of them are M39s: shorter range and with a probable circular error of around 10 meters, which makes them of little use in guaranteeing the destruction of an objective relevant. And on the other hand, so far Washington has only authorized it to use them against Russian targets located in Ukrainian territory occupied by Moscow, such as Crimea and the air bases in Berdyansk and Lugansk. Even if the United States has gradually softened its position, notably after Russia’s use of around forty North Korean Hwasong 11-A and 11-B ballistic missiles, between December 2023 and May of this year, allowing them to also use them against targets located on Russian soil. very close to the border with Ukraine.
But it is also estimated that kyiv has received no more than 120 ATACMS and it is not easy to quickly increase the delivery of many more of these missiles, given the limitations of the production line to serve the dozen countries who have them. acquired them and the needs of American forces to maintain their own arsenals. With an estimated cost of $1 million per missile, the manufacturer says it has produced about 4,000 since their first combat use in 1991.
This means that even if Washington lifts all restrictions on its use, the situation cannot change substantially immediately. Of course, this does not mean that its unrestricted use poses no problem for invading forces – just think of the impact they would have if they managed to disable the bridge over the Kersh Strait – but it forces us to put its importance into perspective as time passes. The balance is tipping in Moscow’s favor and the shadow of President-elect Donald Trump is darkening Ukraine’s options for victory.
It is also unclear whether kyiv will now be able to use these missiles against any target on Russian soil or whether it will only be allowed to do so in Kursk – territory into which Ukrainian forces have launched a incursion last August and of which only about 500 square kilometers remain, while North Korean troops prepare to collaborate with the Russians for their full recovery.
In short, even if Joe Biden is now trying to correct some of the mistakes made by supporting Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, this does not compensate for Ukraine’s notorious demographic, industrial and economic inferiority in a conflict that is approaching its third anniversary.
The US president can calculate that kyiv’s predicament and its demonstrated industrial capacity to manufacture its own ballistic missile make it very likely that, mired in an existential war, Zelensky will decide to use all means at his disposal to avoid defeat – including including British air missiles. -ground cruiser SCALP EG/Storm Shadow, with a range of up to 250 km, although it only has five Sukhoi Su-24 Fencer aircraft to launch them–, crossing the limits that its allies want to establish out of fear Russians. reprisals. This is why Biden now decides to take this step and leaves the rest of the allies to wonder what to do.
But none of this changes the overall impression: time is on Russia’s side, and Trump’s entry into the game does not bode well for Ukrainian aspirations for territorial integrity.
This announcement further gives Putin the opportunity to reorganize his elements on the battlefield, thereby putting potential ATACMS targets out of reach, before kyiv takes the next step. A predictable move that does not reduce their ability to continue attacking both Ukrainian troops – with the main effort focused on breaking the front in Donbass – and energy and communications infrastructure, with the aim of further rendering more difficult life for the civilian population. who has been punished for too long.
