He establishment US foreign policy is bracing for one of the biggest shake-ups in years, as Donald Trump has promised to revamp US foreign policy and end the so-called “deep state” (a constant reference at Trump rallies to designate a network of government officials that would have de facto power), which could lead to the dismissal of thousands of government officials, including those in the US diplomatic corps.
Trump’s victory is likely to push the Biden administration to accelerate efforts to support Ukraine before the Republican’s arrival cuts military aid or hampers already modest efforts to stop Benjamin Netanyahu in Gaza and the Lebanon. A second Trump term could involve cutting or eliminating significant parts of the U.S. bureaucracy, including the State Department, which is equivalent to other countries’ foreign ministries.
Trump supporters have said the Republican will be more organized in his second term, often dubbed “Trump 2.0.” In the aftermath of the election, US media reported that Trump had already chosen Brian Hook, a hawkish State Department official during his first term, to lead the transition phase of US diplomats.
Analysts, current and former U.S. diplomats and foreign officials say when Trump arrives at the White House in January, it will be difficult to distinguish which campaign promises were bluffs and which were real plans. What is clear is that one of his priorities is to end many of the policies promoted by his predecessor.
“I am skeptical about the real impact of the transition process, because the natural instinct of the new team will be to throw Biden’s entire foreign policy in the trash,” says a former senior diplomat. “Looking back to Trump’s victory in 2016, the truth is that, despite his election promises, Mexico did not have to pay for the wall. And you know, it doesn’t seem like there was a secret plan to defeat the Islamic State,” says Richard Fontaine, the organization’s executive director. think tank Center for a New American Security. “Some of these election promises were not kept and we now do not know what the president’s proposal will be… or what he will do.”
However, a clear priority for Trump appears to be targeting officials who shape US foreign policy as part of a broader purge of the US government.
Trump has promised to reactivate Schedule F, a plan that aims to increase the president’s control over federal employees, many of whom could become political appointees. The measure could affect tens of thousands of career civil servants and would give Trump broad authority to fire “dishonest bureaucrats,” as he called them in statements during the campaign.
Within the State Department, there is concern that Trump will target offices that focus specifically on issues he attacked during the presidential campaign, such as immigration. Specifically, it could eliminate entire State Department offices, including the Bureau of Population, Refugees, and Migration (PRM, which resettled 125,000 refugees in the United States in 2022 alone), as well as the Office of Democracy, Human Rights and Labor, which focused on Israel’s violation of Palestinian rights.
An ultraconservative program
Project 2025, a policy brief released by the conservative Heritage Foundation, suggests that Trump would simply reallocate the PRM to allocate resources to “challenges arising from the current immigration situation until this crisis can be brought under control,” and has stated that this would require “indefinitely reducing the number of USRAP refugee admissions [Programa de Admisión de Refugiados de Estados Unidos]”.
But the plan, authored by Kiron Skinner, former director of policy planning at the State Department during Trump’s first term, goes further, suggesting that Trump could simply freeze the agency’s work for a complete reevaluation of its policies previous.
“Prior to the inauguration, the President-elect’s department transition team should evaluate all aspects of the State Department’s negotiations and funding commitments,” a section of the draft states. Skinner wrote that after taking office, the Secretary of State should “order an immediate freeze on all efforts to implement unratified international treaties and agreements, allocation of resources, disbursements of foreign aid, domestic and international contracts and payments, hiring and recruitment decisions.” , etc., awaiting review by a political leader.
“Everyone is preparing,” says a diplomat posted abroad: “Some [diplomáticos] They could choose to leave even before Trump arrives.”
Trump also promised to “reorganize federal departments and agencies and fire all corrupt officials in our national security and intelligence apparatus.”
As Democrat Joe Biden enters his final stage as president, the administration will work to advance the $6 billion in aid already approved for Ukraine, as well as exert all the influence that He still has within his administration to find an improbable solution. fire in Gaza. At the same time, they will have to calm the nervousness of the international community, which is wondering what Trump has planned for his second term.
“I think the outgoing administration is going to do everything it can to make the case that the United States must continue to help Ukraine and will have to spend a lot of time, I’m sure, to take care of nervous Ukrainians and Europeans,” Fontaine said. things what she has done over the past four years will continue in the future and “they will not be defeated.” He concludes: “We will see how they react.”
Translation by Emma Reverter
