The US State Department said it was “incredibly” concerned about the possibility of intense Russian hybrid warfare following Ukraine’s first attack with US-made long-range missiles against targets in Russia. The attack came hours after Joe Biden’s administration lifted restrictions on its use.
Russia has promised an “adequate” response to the new escalation, to the point of modifying its nuclear doctrine. However, Western sources believe that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s response will not occur on the Ukrainian battlefield, but in other parts of the world.
Possible hybrid attacks could cover a wide range of options, including a campaign of sabotage and assassinations in Europe, or provide more weapons to US adversaries in the Middle East and Indo-Pacific regions, according to sources informed of discussions on a possible Russian response. .
European defense ministers discussed the war in Ukraine at a meeting in Brussels on Tuesday, while foreign ministers from France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain and the United Kingdom accused Russia in a joint statement of “systematically attacking the European security architecture.”
In Washington, US State Department spokesman Matthew Miller said: “Overall, we are extremely concerned about Russia’s hybrid warfare in Europe and around the world, and it is a subject on which we have focused in close coordination with our country. » European and other allies and partners around the world. Miller was referring to the recent sabotage of two submarine fiber optic communications cables in the Baltic Sea and added that Russia “will be held responsible” for further such actions.
Russia may decide to delay further escalation before the inauguration of Donald Trump, who has threatened to cut aid to Ukraine and negotiate a peace deal that is expected to favor Russia.
The first Ukrainian attack with Atacms hit an ammunition warehouse in the Bryansk region, the New York Times reported, citing U.S. and Ukrainian officials. The area is located northwest of the Kursk region, where Ukraine has been carrying out an incursion since early August.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky did not directly confirm the Bryansk attack, but said: “We now have Atacms, Ukrainian long-range capabilities, and we will use them.”
The Russian Defense Ministry said five of the missiles were shot down and another was damaged. The ministry added that rocket debris caused a fire at an unidentified military installation. A US source told the Associated Press that only two missiles were intercepted.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has promised an “appropriate” response to the first use of US-made missiles, which Vladimir Putin said would amount to Washington and its NATO allies entering into direct conflict with Russia.
The reactions came hours after Vladimir Putin signed a revised nuclear doctrine that lowers the threshold for using nuclear weapons. A spokesperson for the US National Security Council downplayed the move, saying the review had been planned for weeks: “Without a change in Russia’s nuclear posture, we saw no reason to adjust our own posture or nuclear doctrine in response. »
Keir Starmer, British Prime Minister, said the new doctrine would not deter him from supporting Ukraine. “There is irresponsible rhetoric coming from Russia, and that is not going to deter our support for Ukraine,” he told reporters at the G20 summit in Brazil.
US and European diplomatic sources have also raised the possibility that Russia will intensify its growing campaign of attacks on US and European infrastructure, which has worsened significantly since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
In the joint statement, UK and EU ministers said Russia’s hybrid attacks were “escalating” and “unprecedented in their variety and scale, creating significant security risks”.
“NATO and the EU must do much more to protect this critical infrastructure,” Finnish Defense Minister Antti Häkkänen told Politico: “We know that Russia has [la] capacity and willingness to commit acts of sabotage in Europe.
Earlier this month, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said Russia was waging an “increasingly intense campaign of hybrid attacks” that demonstrated that “the front line in this war is not is no longer just in Ukraine. Increasingly, the front line extends beyond borders, towards the Baltic region, Western Europe and even the Far North.”
Intelligence services are investigating recent damage to Baltic Sea cables, which were cut earlier this week.
German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said on Tuesday that the damage was believed to be the result of sabotage. “No one believes the cables were damaged accidentally. “I also don’t want to believe that the boat anchors caused the damage by accident,” he said. If this conclusion is confirmed, it should have been planned before the United States authorized the use of ATACMS missiles within Russian borders.
Thus, some sources fear that Europe could see an increase in Kremlin-sponsored attacks, including sabotage attempts and arson, assassinations and attacks on military bases, transport and telecommunications infrastructure.
A former senior European defense official has described the EU as “totally unprotected” in the face of a hypothetical escalation of Moscow’s hybrid war. The former official, who recently left his post, said Europe does not have the resources to counter Russian sabotage, which they say will intensify after Biden’s decision to allow Ukraine to use long-range missiles against Russia.
A senior European security official described the recent wave of attacks as “more akin to terrorism, aimed at intimidating the population and influencing decision-making, and affecting support for Ukraine.”
Earlier this year, US and German intelligence services reportedly foiled a Russian plot to assassinate several defense industry executives across Europe, including a plot to kill Rheinmetall CEO Armin Papperger.
Russia could also increase its support for Iran and its allies in the region, such as the Houthis in Yemen or Hezbollah in Lebanon.
The United States, which supplies weapons and targeting information to Ukraine, said the decision to authorize the ATACMS strikes was in response to the introduction of more than 10,000 North Korean troops to the front and would focus on their abilities.
In October, US envoy to the UN Robert Wood warned that Pyongyang’s forces entering Ukraine would “surely return in body bags”.
Neither the United States nor Ukraine has confirmed the use of the missiles, but in a statement, Ukraine’s General Staff said Tuesday that the missiles hit a military arsenal at Logistics Center 1046, at outskirts of the town of Karachev. “The destruction of ammunition depots will continue in order to put an end to the armed aggression of the Russian Federation against Ukraine,” the document says.
Independent Russian media reported that residents of Karachev heard explosions overnight. Several videos circulating on the Internet, presumably from the Karachev district, showed sounds of explosions and visible lightning.
“This is, of course, a sign that they want an escalation,” Lavrov told reporters at the G20 summit, adding that it would be seen as a sign that Russia is engaging in a “new phase of war from the West.
The UK is also expected to provide Ukraine with its own Storm Shadow missiles for use against targets in Russia, following US approval.
Although Moscow has vowed to retaliate, some analysts have suggested that its options on the battlefield are limited and the country is unlikely to resort to the nuclear option.
“Most likely will be an increase in attacks on Ukrainian cities and civilian infrastructure in anticipation of winter cold,” said political analyst Anton Barbashin, adding that the use of long-range weapons supplied by the West would not would probably not pose a threat. Definitive red line for Moscow: “Attacks with long-range ATACMS missiles on the territory of Russia (…) are more likely to enter the list of red lines that are crossed and cease to be red lines . »
