The current political situation in the United States still affects the global economic agenda. But investors will also have to deal with new macroeconomic data that will affect the market in the coming sessions. To Donald Trump’s victory in the elections, including policies have a more inflationary character to those of candidate Kamala Harris, will be added the CPI data for October, which will be known next Wednesday.
The market consensus which reflects Bloomberg it is expected that last month’s price index increase of two tenths to 2.6% over one year. Likewise, underlying CPI would remain stuck at the 3.3% level seen in previous data. The American economy would thus record a slight rebound in prices which would counteract the American Federal Reserve’s interest rate reduction plan expected by the market. And after Jerome Powell’s decision this week, no further monetary policy adjustments are expected for this year and in 2025 there would only be a 75 basis point reduction.
Jerome Powell is also expected to speak in a speech on the same day that the CPI and industrial price index data are released. Beyond the United States, in the euro zone, final inflation data will be known in countries like Germany or Spain, where no changes are expected compared to preliminary dataat 2% and 1.8%, respectively. On the other hand, the minutes of the last meeting of the European Central Bank will be published on Thursday, during which a new cut of 25 basis points was made, as well as investors’ expectations with the ZEV surveys for the euro zone. .
Furthermore, the European Council will update its economic forecasts for the euro zone at the weekly close. Meanwhile, the UK will report growth in its economy in the third quarter, while in the previous period GDP fell to 0.7%, according to experts. On the Asian market, the most important data on next week’s economic agenda will be the third quarter GDP in Japan, after the 2.9% increase recorded between April and June.
