US inflation surprised up in September, which ends up excluding for the moment the scenario of a rapid reduction in interest rates by the US Federal Reserve. The resilience of macroeconomic data and the good outlook for employment data for September had already led the market to rule out the possibility of another “giant” rate cut from the Fed (a 50 basis point cut like that of September, the norm is 25 basis points) in November and December. Although the September Consumer Price Index (CPI) was not expected to be a big catalyst for the market with the Fed already more concerned about growth than inflation, the fact That the numbers surprised on the upside doesn’t just give the final touch to a few. avocados” which were abandoned for the new “jumbo” cut, but They open the door to an unexpected break in November.
Last month, according to data released this Thursday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) of the US Department of Labor, the CPI advanced one 2.4% over one year, compared to 2.5% in August and 2.3% expected by analysts. On a monthly basis, the increase was 0.2%, also a tenth more than expected. He Underlying CPI (excluding energy and food), much stickier recently, rises directly by a tenth to 3.3%. Its monthly rate also surprises, up by a tenth to 0.3%.
If the “face” was the 4% monthly drop in food prices essencethe “cross” was the accommodationthe equivalent rent and the real rent of famous owners increasing by 0.3% over one month. The prices of medical services increased by 0.9%, prices of car insurance 1.2%, airfares 3.2% and the price of used vehicles 0.3%.
He walk seems to have taken this data with equanimity. The proof is that the Treasury Bond Yields They fell slightly, although logic dictated that they would rise in the face of surprising data that was interpreted as a warning that the Fed would proceed more cautiously with rate cuts.
